The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The goal for this article is to highlight top daily projection edges for World Baseball Classic moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Thursday, I preview seven games, including Cuba-Panama, Netherlands-Venezuela, Mexico-Great Britain, Puerto Rico-Colombia, Nicaragua-Dominican Republic, and United States-Brazil.
If you want my bets, make sure to follow me in the Action Network App, and if you want my projections for the 5 a.m. ET games, or any of the weekend WBC games, make sure to follow me on Twitter.
Here are my World Baseball Classic Predictions and WBC picks for Friday, March 6.
World Baseball Classic Predictions for March 6
Cuba vs. Panama Picks
Panama has several current (Miguel Amaya, Edmundo Sosa, Jose Caballero, and Leo Jimenez) and former (Christian Bethancourt, Jonathan Arauz, Johan Camargo, Jamie Barria, Humberto Mejia, Paolo Espino) MLB contributors on their roster and a ton of speed at the one three and nine spots in their order with reigning MLB steal leader Jose Caballero, Edmundo Sosa (96th percentile in sprint speed) and Orioles' prospect Enrique Bradfield Jr. (135 steals in 209 minor leauge games).
They went 2-2 in 2023 but were eliminated on a five-way tiebreaker, and sent a much stronger roster back for 2026.
While their offense and pitching (projected 13th at a 75 wRC+ and 12th at a 5.0 FIP, respectively) don't quite match up with Puerto Rico or Canada, I power rate them as a better team than Cuba (projected 68 wRC+ and 5.12 FIP) at the team level.
The exception in this game is Cuba starter Livan Monielo, the reigning Pacific League MVP in Japan. The southpaw posted a 1.46 ERA, with a 2.40 xFIP and a 20.3% K-BB% over 167 innings in Japan last season, while helping the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks to the Japan Series title.
Fortunately for Panama, Monielo is limited to 65 pitches during Pool play.
I'd make Panama the clear favorite in a neutral pitching matchup, but Monielo's presence for the first four to five innings pushed Cuba to a slight favorite in my model.
There's a sizable edge on Panama; bet the underdog to +110.
Netherlands vs. Venezuela Picks
The Netherlands is likely the team I am lowest on relative to the market. While they have a few MLB position players, aside from Kenley Jansen (projected 4.00 FIP) and Kevin Kelly (3.88 FIP), the pitching on this roster is a disaster, and ranks among my worst units at any position group in the tournament.
Ranger Suarez's starting adds another layer of suppression to the Dutch offense, which, outside of Bogaerts, Rafaela, and Albies, is on a domestic league level.
And while I'm not confident in Venezuela's pitching depth in a longer tournament, the lineup should feast, particularly against lesser pitching.
At -450 (best odds at FanDuel), Venezuela has value per our model, up to around -570; you can consider Venezuela a parlay piece, or I would take their -3.5 runline up to -110, or -2.5 to -150. I also show value on the Under 9.5 runs, and would bet an additional half unit on the total, up to -115.
Mexico vs. Great Britain Picks
My moneyline projection sits at the midpoint of the betting market for this matchup, which has Mexico priced between -1000 (90.9%) and -1200 (92.3%) implied as of writing. I would need something closer to +1200 to back the Brits straight up, and their spread (listed +4.5, +100) also appears appropriately priced.
The real actionable edge is the total; my model set the number closer to 9.5 for this game, anticipating the mercy rule triggering just 1.3% of the time, as Mexico will likely go to their lesser relievers (and save their best arms for tougher matchups with USA and Italy), assuming they get out to an early lead.
Mexico ranks as the tournament's fifth-best offense. If they were an MLB team, I would rate them right around league average (100 wRC+), but while the Brits also have some decent bats, their pitching staff ranks as my third-worst in the field.
Bet Over 8.5 up to 9 (-110).
Puerto Rico vs. Colombia Picks
My moneyline projection aligns with the betting market for this game, but Colombia is closer to coming into range as a play; I would consider taking +330 or better on the underdog.
The Lugo/Diaz pitching combo is elite for Puerto Rico. Still, terrible baserunning and defense drag down their power rating in my model by as much as 3.5%, which effectively offsets their home-field advantage at Hiram Bithorn Stadium.
I project substantial value both on the Under 9.5 runs (to 9, -145), and a correlated edge on Colombia +3.5 runs (to -155), and would split those wagers if the total drops from 9.5, but go a bit overweight on the Under if it remains above the key number of 9.
Nicaragua vs. Dominican Republic Picks
Similar to Venezuela, I project value in the Dominican Republic both as a parlay piece and as a potential spread bet on their opening game against a lower-tier team in their pool. Their team is seemingly on a redemption tour following an embarrassing first-round exit in 2023.
You can include their moneyline on a ticket up to -2000, or play their spread (-4.5 runs) up to -200.
United States vs. Brazil Picks
These teams project as my best and worst teams in the tournament, and I expect Team USA to mercy Brazil more than 80% of the time in this matchup; if they were guaranteed nine innings to bat, I would set their team total closer to 15 runs than 12.5.
As a result, I would lean slightly to the USA on the spread (-9.5 runs), but wouldn't take anything past -115, and I would also lean to the Under 14.5 for the game if you gave me plus money (or Under 15 at -120). Additionally, you can use Team USA (up to -5000) to close out a potential juice parlay with the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
You'll still have to pay near -300 or higher for that three-team ticket, but I'd price the fair odds on that ticket at -505; take the trio together up to -440.
Zerillo's WBC Predictions for March 6
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- Colombia +3.5 Runs (-115, 0.5u), Caesars; bet to -155
- Dominican Republic -4.5 Runs (-115, 0.5u), Caesars; bet to -200
- Japan / Chinese Taipei, Under 8.5 (-118, Risk 1u), FanDuel; bet to 7.5 (+100)
- Mexico / Great Britain, Over 8.5 (-110, Risk 1u), FanDuel; bet to 9 (-110)
- Netherlands / Venezuela, Under 9.5 (-110, 0.5u), FanDuel; bet to -115
- Parlay (-280, 0.25u), Fanatics: Venezuela (-475), Dominican Republic (-1000), United States (-5000); bet to -440
- Panama Moneyline (+162, 1u), FanDuel; bet to +110
- Puerto Rico / Colombia, Under 9.5 (-110, Risk 1u), Caesars; bet to 9 (-145)
- United States -9.5 Runs (-115, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to -115
- Venezuela -2.5 Runs (-150, 0.25u); bet to -150
- Venezuela -3.5 Runs (+110, 0.25u), FanDuel; bet to -110
