The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The goal for this article is to highlight top daily projection edges for World Baseball Classic moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Thursday, I preview Czechia vs. South Korea (5 a.m. ET) and Japan vs. Australia (10 p.m. ET).
Here are my World Baseball Classic Picks and WBC best bets for Thursday, March 5.
Zerillo's World Baseball Classic Best Bets for Thursday
Czechia vs. South Korea
In my World Baseball Classic futures preview (which you still have time to read before the tournament kicks into full swing on Friday), I noted the following about these respective teams at opposite ends of Pool C contention:
Korea has failed to advance past the pool stage since losing the 2009 final against Japan in extra innings. Still, they are sending a much younger and better club in 2026, led by the Giants' Jung Hoo Lee (107 wRC+, 2.4 WAR in 2025) and the Tigers' Jahmai Jones (career 107 wRC+ in 287 PA), alongside a pair of 22-year-old domestic starts; KT Wiz phenom Hyun-Min Ahn (1.018 OPS, 75 BB, 72 K, 22 HR in 112 games played in 2025), and Kia Tigers' third baseman Do Yeong Kim (1.067 OPS, 38 HR, 40 SB in his 2024 KBO MVP campaign). Korea projects as my sixth-best offensive team in the field. Additionally, improved pitching (projected 4.2 FIP, 4th) should be the difference maker; surrendering 26 runs in four games of Pool play cost them the tiebreaker in 2023.
And most importantly, their players all have large samples of readily available performance data that are predictive when combined with Major League Equivalencies (MLEs).
Czechia is a team that is full of fun stories, but they are a completely different animal from a handicapping perspective. Aside from minor leaguers Terrin Vavra and Ryan Johnson, all of the guys on this team are seemingly semi-pro players with day jobs.
After adjusting for the Czech domestic 0.15 conversion factor, their pitching staff projects to a uniform 6.50 FIP / 3.25% K-BB%; every arm on the roster is functionally identical because they all received the same baseline projection in my model. There's no role distinction in any meaningful sense; it's just nine innings of replacement-level amateur pitching.
The model prices Korea north of 90% (projected -920), but that's still well short of the opening line (-2100 at FanDuel and -3500 at DraftKings); in fact, DraftKings put up a +1300 on Czechia, but I'd need at least +1500 (an anticpated 3.5% edge compared to my number) before I start to think about it. My projected fair spread also splits the listed odds.
But frankly, given the minimal data for teams like Brazil or Czechia, I feel my model is fairly conservative in estimating their true floor.
Our expected total of 11.32 is also in line with the opening total of 11.5, which was juiced to the Over at one book (-125/+100 at DraftKings), the Under at another (-104/-118 at FanDuel), and flat at a third (-110 either side at Caesars). I would have considered Under 11.5 at even money, but the DraftKings line has moved to 11 (-125/+100) as of writing.
If you're betting the total, you're essentially betting on how quickly Korea gets to the mercy threshold.
The mercy rule is the dominant factor here; it triggers in 32.1% of sims, compressing what would otherwise be an expected total of 13.5+ down to 11.3.
And if you work for a book and can advocate for listing a two-way mercy market in these tournament games, you'd have my full and undivided attention for every pool stage matchup.
Pick: Pass
Australia vs. Czechia
I will update this section with projected fair odds, analysis, and any bets I have for Thursday night's game between Australia and Czechia (10 p.m. ET) after the opening games for both teams conclude.
Zerillo's WBC Best Bets for March 5
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- TBD
