The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The United States, whose lone title came in 2017, enters as the odds-on favorite, with a significantly better roster than in 2023.
The defending champions and three-time winners, Japan, are expected to meet the USA in the final, with both teams favored throughout pool play and in the first two rounds of the single-elimination bracket stage.
Still, a difficult matchup against the Dominican Republic (the 2013 champions, and the only other nation to win this tournament) likely awaits Team USA in the semi-final, assuming the D.R. wins Pool D — arguably the deepest in the tournament.
The Pools are comprised of five teams each and are organized as follows:
- Pool A: Puerto Rico, Cuba, Canada, Panama, Colombia (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
- Pool B: United States, Mexico, Italy, Great Britain, Brazil (Houston, Texas)
- Pool C: Japan, Australia, Korea, Czechia, Chinese Taipei (Tokyo, Japan)
- Pool D: Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Israel, Nicaragua, Netherlands (Miami, Florida)
Below, I'll discuss my methodology for projecting the 2026 World Baseball Classic, provide my projections for pool winners, teams to advance, and to win the tournament, and discuss where my anticipated betting edges and allocations are relative to the market odds.
Read on for our World Baseball Classic picks and projections.
| Click on a category to skip ahead |
| Projections |
| Methodology |
| Pool A Breakdown |
| Pool B Breakdown |
| Pool C Breakdown |
| Pool D Breakdown |
| Futures Bets |
World Baseball Classic Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| USA | -110 |
| Japan | +350 |
| Dominican Republic | +425 |
| Venezuela | +900 |
| Puerto Rico | +1800 |
| Mexico | +2000 |
| Canada | +5000 |
| South Korea | +6000 |
| Netherlands | +7500 |
| Italy | +7500 |
| Colombia | +7500 |
| Cuba | +10000 |
| Panama | +10000 |
| Chinese Taipei | +15000 |
| Australia | +20000 |
| Israel | +25000 |
| Great Britain | +25000 |
| Czechia | +25000 |
| Nicaragua | +30000 |
| Brazil | +35000 |
Odds via bet365 Sportsbook
World Baseball Classic Picks: Zerillo's Projections
WBC Futures Bets: Methodology
This World Baseball Classic futures model builds team-level power ratings for all 20 WBC participants by blending MLB projection systems (including ATC, Steamer, and ZIPS) with international league data converted through Major League Equivalencies (MLEs).
For example, if a player's projection or performance at the MLB level is given full credit, a projection or performance datapoint at the Triple-A level (0.85 or 85%) is still more valuable than a comparable datapoint in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball (0.75), Korea's KBO (0.60), or Taiwan's CPBL (0.50).
While international player conversions leverage established MLEs for players with sufficient data, determining where players from leagues like the Czech Extraliga and the Dutch Honkbal Hoofdklasse fall between 0 and 1 on the MLE scale (0.15? 0.3?) will directly determine how you rate the relative strength of those clubs.
Moreover, I weighted talent allocation toward probable starters and key bullpen assignments, and weighted those roles against roster depth to capture variance between tournament performance and domestic-league talent distribution.
From there, the model ran 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations through the full tournament bracket (pool play, quarterfinals, semis, and final) to generate win probabilities, advancement odds, and outright championship lines for every team (adjusting for home-field advantage for host nations).
Pool A Breakdown
Although Canada has never advanced in five trips to the World Baseball Classic, I favor them to win a watered-down Pool A, showing significant edges on their outright Pool odds, or at least secure one of the top two spots and advance.
Even without potential stars Freddie Freeman, Nick Pivetta, and Matt Brash in the fold, this is arguably the best team that Canada has ever sent to the tournament. I give them the best offense (91 wRC+, seventh best in the tournament) and pitching staff (4.7 FIP, ninth) in this Pool. Still, baserunning and defense — even with the presence of ace center fielder Denzel Clarke (+7 DRS in 47 games played) — could be their downfall.
By WAR/600 projections, Canada has the top three, and five of the top seven position players in Pool A (Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor, Otto Lopez, Tyler O'Neill, and Clarke) with additional major league regulars, position players, and prospects in tow (Edouard Julien, Owen Caissie, Tyler Black, and Liam Hicks each project for over 300 plate apperances this season).
The bullpen is shaky, although I like Rob Zastryzny. Still, they have enough MLB-caliber length (from Jameson Taillon, Michael Soroka, Logan Allen, and Cal Quantrill) from their starters to survive a group stage round robin.
Take Canada to win Pool A down to +220, and bet them to advance at +115 or better, with either bet representing an edge of 2% or more compared to my projected line.
Puerto Rico will have home-field advantage in a raucous home environment, but their roster is watered down by injuries and insurance absences (including Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, George Springer, and Jose Berrios).
They rank 10th in my model for both hitting (83 wRC+) and pitching (4.8 FIP), and I also project them as a bad defensive and base-running team.
The MLB regulars on the roster are Nolan Arenado, Heliot Ramos, Willi Castro, Seth Lugo, Edwin Diaz, Fernando Cruz, and Jovani Moran.
They'll likely need to win low-scoring games behind their closer, Diaz, and get unexpected contributions from younger players like Yankees' farmhand Elmer Rodriguez to advance to the second round.
Still, their odds didn't adjust nearly enough following the key defections, and if the pool futures odds are any indication, I'll likely be betting against Puerto Rico, the two-time runner-up (2013, 2017), in their pool games.
Panama should be the biggest beneficiary if Puerto Rico struggles in the opening round.
They went 2-2 in 2023 but were eliminated on a five-way tiebreaker. They are sending a much stronger roster for 2026, including four MLB contributors (Miguel Amaya, Edmundo Sosa, Jose Caballero, and Leo Jimenez) and other recognizable names (Christian Bethancourt, Jonathan Arauz, Johan Camargo, Jamie Barria, Humberto Mejia, Paolo Espino) alongside former No. 17 pick and Orioles' prospect Enrique Bradfield Jr.
While their offense and pitching (projected 13th at a 75 wRC+ and 12th at a 5.0 FIP, respectively) doesnt quite match up with the tool Pool A teams ranked above them, Panama should excel both on the basepaths and in the field, with a ton of team speed. Caballero led the majors with 49 steals in 370 plate appearances last season, while Bradfield has swiped 135 bases in 209 minor league games (a 104-steal full-season pace). Both Caballero and Sosa (96th percentile in sprint speed) provide positional versatility.
Take Panama to advance, or qualify for the quarterfinal round, down to +260.
Cuba was one of the more difficult teams to project, as it seems apparent due to significant MLB defections that their domestic talent level has dropped significantly from the teams that reached the final in 2006 and the semi-final in 2023. Their 0-5 showing in the most recent Premier 12 tournament provides confirmation bias in that regard.
Yoan Moncada and Yariel Rodriguez are the only current MLB contributors, but minor leaguers including Yiddi Cappe (MIA), Alexander Vargas (CIN), Malcolm Nunez (PIT), and Omar Hernández (KCR) will join 44-year-old Alexei Ramirez and 39-year-old Alfredo Despagine for one final run at their first title.
Cuba does have a pair of ace pitchers from NPB in southpaw starter Livan Monielo — the first Cuban MVP in NPB history (12-3, 1.46 ERA, 2.40 xFIP, 20.3% K-BB%) — and closer Raidel Martinez (1.11 ERA, 1.76 xFIP, 25.6% K-BB%). I give them a top-seven pitching staff, but their offense (projected 68 wRC+) and defense ranks outside the top 15.
After accounting for vig, I essentially align with the market's expectations for Cuba.
Colombia has a few fringe MLB contributors (Gio Urshela, Donovan Solano, Elias Diaz, Jose Quintana, Reiver Sanmartin, Guillermo Zuniga), formerly known commodities (Jorge Alfaro, Harold Ramirez, Jordan Diaz), and minor leaguers. Still, they rank 18th in my offensive projection, 14th for pitching, and 19th for baserunning.
The betting market makes Colombia the most likely team to advance if Puerto Rico or Canada falter. Still, my projection is much higher on Panama. I expect to bet specifically on Panama in that head-to-head matchup against Colombia.
I'm surprised by the futures market in that regard, too. Colombia went 1-3 on their most recent WBC trip, with their lone win in extra innings over Mexico as fairly significant underdogs. Their 2023 team, which included Nabil Crismatt, Oscar Mercado, and more MLB contributors mentioned above in their prime, was arguably better than their 2026 squad.
Pool A Futures Bets
- Advance/Qualify from Pool A: Canada (+110, 1.25u), FanDuel
- Advance/Qualify from Pool A: Panama (+350, 0.35u), Fanatics
- Pool A Winner: Canada (+360, 0.5u), Fanatics
Pool B Breakdown
My model says the outright odds for a loaded United States roster are on the nose, specifically because of their difficult path through the field's second- and third-best teams.
The issue with the roster may be too much depth. The best nine for the Dominican Republic is just as good as Team USA's best nine, but selecting the correct nine is a more difficult task for Mark DeRosa than it is for Albert Pujols — the best lineup for the Dominican Republic is much more obvious.
For instance, Aaron Judge (projected 182 wRC+) hit third behind Bryce Harper (projected 133 wRC+), while Alex Bregman (projected 113 wRC+) played ahead of Gunnar Henderson (projected 130 wRC+) and hit ahead of Cal Raleigh (projected 130 wRC+) in Tuesday's exhibition, causing a minor stir on the interwebs.
Optimizing a lineup as good as this one will make a minimal difference over the course of seven games. However, you would still like to see it optimized correctly by a manager whose qualifications extend beyond TV analyst vibes guy.
It's also fair to say that Team USA is loaded with stars who are not used to coming off the bench, pinch-hitting, or fulfilling different roles. In contrast, other nations with less depth can insert actual role players into more comfortable situations.
Moreover, a pitcher like Tarik Skubal — who will throw about 55 pitches in a single Pool-play game before returning to his MLB club — ultimately adds very little to the USA's overall chances of winning the tournament.
Ultimately, this remains the top team in the field by multiple datapoints: offensively (projected 124 wRC+), defensively, and on the mound (projected 3.5 FIP), and they project third in baserunning.
I would take any plus money outright price on the United States.
Still, the odds that the better baseball team wins an MLB game are about 54%. When you're playing tournament-style baseball and constantly deploying new pitchers alongside an opponent as strong as the Dominican Republic, the semi-final will play out very close to a coin flip.
Mexico finished third in the 2023 WBC and nearly knocked off Japan. They'll bring back a better offense by adding catcher Alejandro Kirk, who was injured just before the last tournament. And they have a strong bullpen with Andres Munoz, Robert Garcia, Brennan Bernardino, and Victor Vodnik, but the starting pitching (Taj Bradley, Taijuan Walker, Javier Assad) and depth are lacking.
Mexico ranks as the tournament's fifth-best offense. If they were an MLB team, I would rate them right around league average (100 wRC+), as Jarren Duran (projected 109 wRC+), Randy Arozarena (113), Alejandro Kirk (114), and Jonathan Aranda (116) lift a supporting cast of below-average bats.
Additionally, I have them ranked sixth in pitching (4.3 FIP), but I don't think the gap between Mexico and teams like Italy or Great Britain is as wide as the betting market suggests.
Italy advanced past pool play as part of that five-way tie of 2-2 teams in 2023. They're also bringing back a much stronger roster for 2026.
Youngsters Kyle Teel (projected 105 wrC+), Jac Caglianone (98), Jacob Marsee (99), and Dominic Canzone (101) provide a lot of loud tools to support Vinnie Pasquantino's (115) power. I'd take Aaron Nola and Michael Lorenzen over any of Mexico's starters, and then Gordon Graceffo, Sam Aldeghiri, Ron Marinaccio, Greg Weissert, Matt Festa, Dan Altavilla, and Kyle Nicolas provide a solid backbone of MLB-caliber bullpen arms to mix and match in high-leverage spots.
Italy ranks as my eighth-best offense (89 wRC+) and 11th-best pitching staff (4.8 FIP). Still, with Marsee and Jon Berti, it should excel on the basepaths, and you can sense power bats like Pasaquantino, Caglianone, and Canzone binging against sub-MLB-caliber pitching.
Bet Italy to advance, down to +175.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (projected 110 wRC+) immediately becomes the most impactful new addition to team Great Britain after appearing for the team in the 2016 qualifiers. He'll join a squad mostly comprised of minor leaguers alongside five other players who should appear at the MLB level this season — Harry Ford, Nate Eaton, Brendan and Tristan Beck, and Michael Petersen. Kristian Robinson (ARI) is the prospect to watch on this team.
Great Britain defeated Colombia in 2023 and had close losses to both the USA and Mexico. They have a lot of team speed, but project 15th in my offensive rankings (72 wRC+), 17th in pitching (5.4 FIP), and dead last defensively.
While you could bet the Brits to advance at +2500, I'd rather monitor their moneyline (and spread) on a game-by-game basis, as they may need to go 2-2 and win a pitching-based tiebreaker to advance.
Brazil projects as the worst team in the tournament in my model — last in hitting (41 wRC+), and 19th in pitching (5.6 FIP).
Considering the lack of data on many of their players, I'm probably being overly generous with near-average rankings in speed and defense. Fewer than seven players on the team have experience in affiliated ball.
There are some fun names on this roster, including Lucas Ramirez (Manny's son) and Joseph Contreras (the 17-year-old son of former forkballer, Jose).
Still, I'd expect a 0-4 showing from Brazil, following a 0-3 record in their 2013 debut.
Pool B Futures Bets
- Advance/Qualify from Pool B: Italy (+225, 1u), DraftKings
Pool C Breakdown
I don't find the 2026 Japan roster nearly as strong as the team that won in 2023. I'd rank them closer to their team that won the initial WBC in 2006, led by one star (Ichiro) and a few MLB contributors (like Daisuke Matsuzaka, Koji Uehara, Nori Aoki, Kosuke Fukudome, and our beloved Munenori Kawasaki).
While they bring back 16 members of the 2023 championship roster, there have been significant pitching defections — including Yu Darvish, Roki Sasaki, Shota Imanaga, and Shohei Ohtani (DH only). Their sparkplug leadoff man, Lars Nootbaar, is also unavailable (offseason surgery).
Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw a ton of pitches in the 2025 postseason, and I doubt the Dodgers will let him get overused in this tournament. Still, 2025 Sawamura Award winner Hiromi Itoh (2.52 ERA, 2.17 xFIP, 20.8% K-BB% in NPB) is the next man up behind him.
Their defensive outfield — which will likely feature Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida in the corners — could be an absolute mess. New manager Hirokazu Ibata will also have to figure out a way to deploy their defensive structuring around Munetaka Murakami and Kensuke Kondoh, as both are blocked at DH by Shohei Ohtani — arguably the best defensive outfielder on the team.
Japan still projects as the third-best team in the tournament (third in hitting, 109 wRC+; second in pitching, 3.9 FIP). But they are around average both defensively and on the basepaths, hidden areas where they are typically good to elite.
Lastly, I wanted to point out that in 2022, the split-finger fastball was barely used in MLB (1.5%). But following Japan's success in the 2023 WBC against MLB-caliber hitters, the pitch gained popularity, rising to 2.3% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024, and 3.5% leaguewide in 2025.
While that increase may seem fairly insignificant, I can assure you that MLB-caliber hitters are far more comfortable facing the arsenals of these Japanese pitchers than they were just three years ago. Offenses have gotten better against the pitch leaguewide every season (-0.72 in 2022, to -0.48 in 2023, to -0.25 in 2024, to -0.15 in 2025 per 100 pitches).
Korea has only known heartbreak at the hands of Japan in the WBC.
They won their first six games (including two against Japan) in 2006 before getting eliminated by their rivals in the semi-final (their first loss of the tournament), and they lost the 2009 final against Japan (5-3) in extra innings. They had a poor showing at the 2023 tournament, failing to advance past the pool stage for the third consecutive tournament.
Still, I like their chances of turning the tables in 2026 behind a contact-oriented offense and a more competent pitching staff than they sent to recent tournaments.
They don't have the bats at the level of an Ohtani (projected 167 wRC+), let alone a Suzuki (120), Murakami (110), or Okamoto. However, I still project Korea for a 92 WRC+ (sixth in the field) with Jahmai Jones and Shay Whitcomb joining the Giants' Jung Hoo Lee, the Dodgers' Hyeseong Kim, and a pair of 22-year-old domestic starts; KT Wiz phenom Hyun-Min Ahn (1.018 OPS, 75 BB, 72 K, 22 HR in 112 games played in 2025), and Kia Tigers' third baseman Do Yeong Kim (1.067 OPS, 38 HR, 40 SB in his 2024 KBO MVP campaign).
Improved pitching (projected 4.2 FIP, 4th) should be the difference maker. Surrendering 26 runs in four games of Pool play cost them the tiebreaker in 2023.
Relative to the price I'd expect to get in a one-game scenario against Japan, Korea's odds to win the Pool or advance are equally appealing. Take the former at +600 and the latter at -105.
I'd expect Korea's game against Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) to determine which team advances to the next round with Japan.
The CPBL has added two teams (bringing the total to six on an island nation) since the 2023 WBC, whether that speaks to improved league quality or mere expansion is debatable.
Still, Taiwan (referred to as Chinese Taipei in this tournament) also won the Premier 12 tournament in 2024, defeating Japan in the finals in Tokyo. They have since added Stuart Fairchild (CLE) and Tsung-Che Cheng (PIT) to an otherwise young core that scored 26 runs in four WBC games in 2023.
The pitching (surrendering 31 runs in four games) was as concerning as the offense was enjoyable, but I'm actually expecting those units to regress in opposite directions based on my power ratings. I give Taiwan the 12th-best offense (76 wRC+), but a top-seven pitching staff (4.6 FIP) based on available data. They now have five arms in MLB organizations and three arms pitching in Japan, compared to one or two combined during the last WBC.
Still, they appear to be a weak defensive team (17th), which drags down their chances.
I was prepared to bet Taiwan (again, referred to as Chinese Taipei in this tournament) to advance out of this group, but it appears that they may be a touch overvalued, while Korea is undervalued.
Australia advanced out of pool play for the first time in 2023, defeating Korea, China, and Czechia. They return 17 players from the last tournament and have added MLB-caliber hitters in former No. 1 pick Travis Bazzana (projected 88 wRC+) and former top prospect Curtis Mead (87) to their lineup.
Still, while the Aussies will continue to hit, they still rate them as a below-average offense, and their pitching staff — with only a handful of arms in affiliated ball — projects as a potential bottom-three unit for me in the tournament.
Czechia is the longest shot on the board, aside from Brazil, and without China in their Pool, as in 2023, it's not easy to see them winning a game.
Their team is full of fun stories, including 40-year-old firefighter-turned-pitcher Martin Schneider, and electrician Ondrej Satoria, who struck out Shohei Ohtani in the last WBC.
Aside from minor leaguers Terrin Vavra and Ryan Johnson, all of the guys on this team are seemingly semi-pro players with day jobs. And despite what the model says — even while using an MLE near 0.1 for a baseline player on their team — I don't think I can jump aboard their odds to advance.
Pool C Futures Bets
- Advance/Qualify from Pool C: Korea (+110, 0.75u), DraftKings
- Pool C Winner: Korea (+800, 0.25u), DraftKings
Pool D Breakdown
The lineup for the Dominican Republic is absurd, and the aura is off the charts.
I have seen many question the quality of their pitching, but I do not share the same concerns due to fit.
Cristopher Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, Brayan Bello, and Camilo Doval all excel at keeping the ball on the ground (and avoiding homers). When you pair that with an excellent defensive infield (Vlad Guerrero Jr., Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, and Manny Machado) and two elite outfielders (Julio Rodriguez and Fernando Tatis Jr.), the puzzle pieces slot together.
The biggest concern for this roster is behind the dish, where Austin Wells (-7 DRS in 2025; +11 in 2024) and Agustin Ramirez (-14 in 2025) will struggle to block pitches and hold opposing baserunners in check.
The bench and pitching depth are lacking compared to the United States roster, which is loaded with players with 100+ wRC+ and sub-4 FIP projections (13 of each). Conversely, the D.R. has 10 hitters and six pitchers who meet those thresholds. But, as stated earlier, that is more than enough in a one-game scenario.
The 2013 champions remain the only team to go 8-0 in the WBC, but the 2023 roster – with many of the same players as 2026 – suffered a humiliating first-round exit. Under new manager Albert Pujols, who has serious aspirations to manage an MLB club (and who may take over in Los Angeles for Kurt Suzuki next season), I'd expect a redemption tour full of plátano power.
In my tournament power ratings, the D.R. ranks second offensively (119 wRC+), third in pitching (4.00 FIP), and first in baserunning.
Bet the Dominican Republic to win Pool A, up to -160, and play their tournament outright odds, down to +400.
If Team USA, Japan, and the D.R. are the Tier I teams in this tournament, Venezuela is the lone Tier II squad.
They have plenty of MLB-caliber offensive talent: 12 full-time position players, including Ronald Acuna Jr., and nine other hitters projected for greater than 100 wRC+. But their pitching is a bit lacking compared to the other top teams (projected fifth, with just four arms projected to have an MLB FIP below 4.00).
There only three arms on this team (Ranger Suarez, Eduardo Bazardo, and Daniel Palencia) who I would trust in key spots. And while they have some strong defenders in Andres Gimenez (+9), Maikel Garcia (+10), and Wilyer Abreu (+15), their overall defensive alignment is littered with negative defenders.
I project a similar path to advancement for both Nicaragua and Israel.
Israel finished third in the 2017 WBC and advanced to the quarterfinals in 2023. MLB players Harrison Bader, Spencer Horwitz, Garrett Stubbs, Dean Kremer, Tommy Kahnle, and Max Lazar form the core of their team. They are largely supplemented by minor league talent, including Rockies prospect Cole Carrigg. They project as my 11th-best offense and eighth-best pitching staff.
While Nicaragua ranks behind them in both categories, the gap between middle-tier teams (five points of wRC+, half-run on a FIP projection) isn't as significant as the gap between the top and middle-tier teams, or the middle and bottom-tier teams.
Nicaragua failed to win a game in the 2023 WBC, but won the 2025 qualifier in Taiwan. They added Mark Vientos (projected 100 wRC+ in 2026) and a handful of minor leaguers to their offense, plus seven pitchers with affiliated ball experience to their pitching staff. I'd put them in a similar bucket as team Great Britain — they have a path to advancement, but may need to secure their spot via a tiebreaker.
I'll be looking at game-by-game odds for Nicaragua to pull off a big upset (and secure their first WBC win) in this tournament, but they are worth a flier to advance at +1200 or better. The model would say the same for Israel, at odds of +1000 or better.
The Netherlands has had success in the WBC, finishing fourth in both 2013 and 2017. But they failed to advance in 2023 and are sending one of the worst pitching staffs in the field in 2026.
Aside from Kenley Jansen (projected 4.00 FIP) and Kevin Kelly (3.88 FIP), the pitching on this roster is a disaster. The team brought back 38-year-old Shairon Martis, who has pitched in every WBC and tossed the first WBC no-hitter in 2006.
There is legitimate MLB position player talent in the field, including Ozzie Albies, Xander Bogaerts, Ceddane Rafaela, and Chadwick Tromp (no word if recently suspended Jurickson Profar will be permitted to play), and you'll recognize some other names on the roster, including Didi Gregorious.
Still, even with a top-ten offense in the field (projected 83 wRC+, ninth), my model expects the poor pitching quality to completely tank their chances.
Pool D Futures Bets
- Advance/Qualify from Pool D: Nicaragua (+2000, 0.1u) DraftKings
- Pool D Winner: Dominican Republic (-143, 0.5u), BallyBet
- WBC Champion: Dominican Republic (+460, 0.5u), FanDuel
Zerillo's WBC Futures
Advance/Qualify from Pool
- Pool A: Canada (+110, 1.25u), FanDuel
- Pool A: Panama (+350, 0.35u), Fanatics
- Pool B: Italy (+225, 1u) DraftKings
- Pool C: Korea (+110, 0.75u), DraftKings
- Pool D: Nicaragua (+2000, 0.1u) DraftKings
Pool Winner
- Pool A: Canada (+360, 0.5u), Fanatics
- Pool C: Korea (+800, 0.25u), DraftKings
- Pool D: Dominican Republic (-143, 0.5u), BallyBet
World Baseball Classic Champion
- Dominican Republic (+460, 0.5u), FanDuel
