Today’s Best MLB Prop Bets | Target Chris Sale, J.D. Martinez on April 12
Via Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: J.D. Martinez #28 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts to his solo homerun, for a 9-1 lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks during the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium on April 01, 2023 in Los Angeles, California.
- All 30 MLB teams are in action on Wednesday, and our prop betting expert has a trio of player prop bets ready.
- He's found value on J.D. Martinez, Chris Sale and Lucas Giolito's prop bets.
- Find his expert player prop bets and analysis below.
Everyday, I try to add an edge to my MLB card by adding a few props using our Action Labs projections. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, April 12
Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
| White Sox vs. Twins | Twins -148 |
| First Pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
This is a pure value play, as our Action Labs Player Prop tool projects Lucas Giolito for a whopping 7.2 strikeouts on Wednesday. It’s easily the top play on our board, providing a 25% edge over the plus-money price.
However, we can be optimistic about Gio past the projections.
Giolito has cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in 58% of his starts since the beginning of last season. He fell short in the start against Pittsburgh but also struck out six highly-disciplined Astros in his 2023 debut.
The Twins don’t strike out much, but Giolito has managed some swings and misses. The White Sox starter managed 20 strikeouts in 14 innings across three starts against the Twins last season, good for a whopping 12.9 K/9.
Giolito has a few plus matchups against the Twins from a historical perspective, including:
- Byron Buxton: 6 Ks in 19 PAs
- Michael Taylor: 7 Ks in 14 PAs
- Willi Castro: 5 Ks in 13 PAs
- Trevor Larnach: 5 Ks in 10 PAs
Notably absent from the list is Carlos Correa, who is still out with a back injury. The Twins are also without Max Kepler and Joey Gallo, so they’re slightly shorthanded for this matchup.
I’m willing to trust our numbers and play Giolioto’s strikeout total in today’s early afternoon game.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Pick: Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120) |
Chris Sale Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Red Sox vs. Rays | Rays -136 |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The Rays are overvalued, and it’s likely worth fading them until their unbelievable win streak finally ends.
But in this market, I’m willing to back the Rays against the corpse of Chris Sale.
Surprisingly, I’m not completely out on Sale, but things look very poor. The Stuff+ across his four major offerings has dropped to 87 through his first eight innings this season, and he’s allowed 10 earned runs in that stretch.
Specifically, Sale cannot pitch to right-handed hitters. His sinker-slider mix could still be effective against righties, but he’s getting platooned to the moon otherwise.
Meanwhile, the Rays are crushing left-handed pitching, boasting a 144 wRC+ against the side this season after posting a 108 wRC+ in 2022.
More importantly, the Rays posted the ninth-lowest Strikeout Rate against southpaws last season and are on track to duplicate that result this year.
Notable right-handed (or switch-hitting) Rays who could have big days today:
- Yandy Diaz: 7-for-15 lifetime off Sale, 92.2 mph avg. EV, .458 xwOBA
- Wander Franco: 5-for-7 lifetime off Sale, 3B, HR, .425 xwOBA
- Randy Arozarena: Career 164 wRC+ against LHPs
- Isaac Paredes: Career 143 wRC+ against LHPs, 222 this season
Sale snuck over 5.5 strikeouts against the Orioles and Tigers in both starts this year, but I don’t expect him to replicate those results against the scorching-hot Rays in a bad matchup.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Sale for 5.1 Ks on Wednesday, while BallParkPal projects him for only 4.4 Ks. I’ll shoot my shot with under 5.5 Ks (-130) at FanDuel.
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
Pick: Chris Sale Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130) |
J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
| Dodgers vs. Giants | Dodgers -164 |
| First Pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Has J.D. Martinez found his pop again?
Yes, Martinez’s Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are way up this year. And not just a little bit, but he’s on pace to post career highs in both metrics, albeit in a small sample size.
Martinez has smacked six doubles, a triple and a home run in 12 games, cashing over 1.5 total bases in five.
There’s something about the Dodgers' player development that is simply mythical.
Martinez has a great matchup on Wednesday. JDM is 12-for-25 lifetime off San Francisco’s Alex Cobb with five doubles, a homer and a 94.6 mph avg. EV. Altogether, Martinez boasts a .840 xSLG and .587 xwOBA against Cobb.
Cobb uses his splitter and slider heavily but is a sinkerballer at heart. Martinez posted a +4 Run Value against sinkers last year, slugging .636 with a .680 xSLG and a 48.4% Hard-Hit Rate.
I’m looking for Martinez to smash one of those sinkers on Wednesday night, recording at least his eighth extra-base hit on the short season.
Also, keep an eye on this: Martinez is eyeing his third straight 40-double season at 35 years old.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+125)
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