MLB Same-Game Parlay for Saturday, September 17: How to Bet Orioles vs Blue Jays
Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Mountcastle.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-164|
|Time||3:07 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
On Saturday, we have the second matchup of this three-game AL East intradivisional series as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles. With the Blue Jays attempting to hold onto the first wild card seed and the Orioles just a few games back from the last spot, we should expect everything that these two clubs have to offer.
Below, I will walk through a few picks we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a “same-game parlay,” my approach is all or nothing.
While that statement is sort of like “the sky is blue,” let me explain. In my opinion, it’s essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything for coming close in a parlay.
If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation with each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s OK. There’s absolutely no difference between going 0-for-3 or 2-for-3 on a parlay.
That said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it’s more likely that their team would also win that game.
Following this mold, I have three plays below for this contest between the Orioles and the Blue Jays. Let’s take a look at the selections.
The Parlay (+1033):
- Baltimore Orioles ML (+138)
- Ryan Mountcastle – Hit a Home Run (+440)
- Adley Rutschman – Record a Hit (-195)
Same-Game Parlay – Orioles vs Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles ML (+138)
Taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles is right-hander Kyle Bradish. In his debut season, Bradish has taken a while to adapt to pitching in the big leagues.
However, Bradish has settled in nicely over the second half of the season. Since the beginning of August, he boasts a 2.76 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Through 75 plate appearances against Bradish, this current Blue Jays roster possesses a .262 xBA, .294 xSLG, and .329 xwOBA.
Following Bradish is a competent bullpen. Since August 1, Baltimore's relief pitching ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, WHIP, wOBA, and xFIP. Additionally, this pitching staff should get plenty of run support, as the Orioles are slated to go against right-hander Jose Berrios.
When facing right-handed pitchers, Baltimore ranks 14th in the league in BA, 11th in SLG, 11th in OPS, and 12th in wOBA.
Ryan Mountcastle – Hit a Home Run (+440)
If we are backing the Orioles to win, then we obviously need them to produce offense and score runs. This task should be very doable as they are facing Berrios.
Through 28 starts this season, he is 10-5 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. While those numbers are poor, he enters this game in particularly bad form.
Since the beginning of August, Berrios possesses a 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. This slide was predictable given his poor metrics this season, as he has posted a .350 xwOBA, .276 xBA, and .475 xSLG.
That xSLG figure presents a big issue for Berrios, who has struggled to keep the ball in the park, evidenced by the fact that he has allowed 18 homers over his last 16 starts.
The first Baltimore hitter we are backing in this game is Ryan Mountcastle. Through 10 career at-bats against Berrios, Mountcastle has two hits which were both home runs. We should not expect regression from Mountcastle in this specific matchup as he has produced a .981 xSLG over those 10 at-bats.
Mountcastle has been a massive threat at the dish all season, boasting a .506 xSLG.
Adley Rutschman – Record a Hit (-195)
The other Orioles hitter we are backing is Adley Rutschman. He has been in great form since the beginning of September, recording 12 hits over his last 11 games.
I am optimistic for this hitting to continue against Berrios. Through six career plate appearances against Toronto's right-hander, Rutschman is 4-6 with two doubles and a home run.
Like Mountcastle, we should not expect regression from Rutschman in this specific matchup as he has produced a .458 xBA, 1.021 xSLG, and .622 xwOBA over those six plate appearances.