MLB Same-Game Parlay for Sunday Night Baseball: How to Bet Padres vs. Dodgers (September 4)
Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Clevinger (Padres)
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | +140 |
| Dodgers Odds | -159 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The depth of the Los Angeles pitching staff will be on full display in Sunday's matchup at Dodger Stadium, as LA will send Caleb Ferguson to the mound as an opener for Ryan Pepiot.
San Diego will have one of its better starters in Mike Clevinger on the mound and will still enter as notable underdogs on Sunday Night Baseball.
The Padres may be entering into about as favorable of a matchup as it gets against a ridiculously good Dodgers staff, but can they take advantage with Clevinger on the mound?
Same-Game Parlay: Padres vs. Dodgers
It's certainly very possible the Dodgers' ridiculously talented batting order comes out and lights up Clevinger while embarrassing the Padres yet again, but I think we have some value on a longshot by playing to a far different game script.
This same-game parlay essentially revolves around San Diego winning behind a reasonable Clevinger start, and I think getting +750 for that to happen is certainly a fun long-shot to play.
The Parlay: +750 on bet365
- San Diego Moneyline and 7-Inning Moneyline
- Under 10.5 Runs
- Joey Gallo Under 0.5 Hits
San Diego Moneyline and 7-Inning Line:
The Padres have been far from lights out offensively since their notable acquisitions at the trade deadline. But with this pitching matchup, it's certainly more possible they hang in with the Dodgers than the current prices suggest, and consequently, I like the Padres moneyline as a starting point.
It's unlikely that the Padres manage a comeback in this spot against the Dodgers' high-leverage arms. If the Padres win, it will likely happen because they generate some early offense against Ferguson/Pepiot while getting a reasonable outing from Clevinger.
Clevinger has pitched to an ERA of 3.43 over his last 44.67 innings, and while he's far from an elite pitcher, he certainly could manage a quality outing often enough to give us value on this longshot revolving around a decent performance.
Ferguson figures to open the contest for the Dodgers and offers a tough target for the opening 5-6 outs, but I do project an edge with Clevinger vs. Pepiot for the following handful of innings. Pepiot has pitched to an ERA of 4.02 over 31.33 innings in the big leagues this season, with a 5.71 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, and an xERA above 4.50.
Under 10.5 Runs:
We are really banking on a quality outing from Clevinger, as I believe the Dodgers' pitching situation is still solid enough that the Padres are unlikely to win a high-scoring affair in this contest, especially with their recent struggles at the plate.
Therefore, getting a notable odds boost from playing Under 10.5 on our SGP makes sense as well, and it fits the game script I am looking for in this contest.
Behind the starters lie two very good bullpens, even if the Padres' unit has not entirely performed as one might expect over the last 30 days.
With that said, the Padres' bullpen has still pitched to the 12th-best xFIP (3.83) during that span. With the arms in place, I expect them to manage a better mark than that moving forward.
The Dodgers' bullpen has been fantastic all season long, and that trend has continued of late with the group allowing an xFIP of just 3.55 over the last 30 days.
This is why we like getting an odds boost from backing San Diego to lead through seven innings because if the Padres have to face the Dodgers' best relievers down the stretch, our SGP is likely already off the rails.
Joey Gallo Under 0.5 Hits:
After a reasonably strong start to his Dodger career, Joey Gallo has begun to look more and more lost at the plate again as he has managed just four hits in his last 31 at-bats.
Gallo has struck-out at a ridiculous 48.9% clip during that span and faces a tough matchup Sunday against Clevinger, who has dominated Gallo historically while allowing zero hits in eight at-bats with four strikeouts.
Should our other two legs hit here, Gallo should receive four at-bats at most from his likely spot down the lineup, and we will take the chances he manages nothing in those at-bats considering the splits at play.
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