Monday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Braves-Pirates, Two Other Games
Euclides Rojas, Ray Searage, Chris Archer, Francisco Cervelli. Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
- Sharps are betting three of Monday's MLB games, headlined by Atlanta Braves-Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET) with Pittsburgh listed as a -118 favorite and an over/under of 7.5.
- Wiseguys have also taken sides in the San Francisco Giants-New York Mets and Chicago White Sox-Minnesota Twins games (both 7:10 p.m. ET starts).
Wiseguys had a nice little Sunday Funday. They stopped by Home Depot and Bed Bath and Beyond and then went 3-0 with their plays. Sharps will look to stay hot and take advantage of a small board on Monday.
After analyzing Monday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m. and 7:10 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
- Sharp angle: Pirates -125
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Public players see the Braves getting plus-money and can’t lay off. But sharps are fading the trendy dog.
The Pirates are getting only 35% of bets but have moved from -117 to -125, indicating sharp reverse line movement in their favor. We’ve also triggered three separate bet signals on the Buccos without a single conflicting play on Atlanta.
Pros at Pinnacle hit PIT -117 as soon as the line came out, then Goodfellas at BetUs and Bovada hammered PIT -117 and -120 earlier this morning.
Editor’s Note: Braves’ starting pitcher Kevin Gausman was scratched. Bryse Wilson will start in his place.
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
- Sharp angle: Giants +109
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Public bettors are down on the Giants, who just got swept by the Reds to lose their fourth game in a row. Meanwhile, the Mets just completed an 11-game road trip with a 7-4 record.
With New York at home and the streaking Zack Wheeler on the mound (8-6, 3.75 ERA), nearly 65% of bettors are taking the Mets as short favorites. But sharps are buying low on the G-Men.
San Fran is getting only 36% of bets but 44% of dollars, and the Giants have fallen from +117 to +109, indicating smart money in their favor.
Pros at Pinnacle steamed SF +109 with zero conflicting plays on the Mets.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
- Sharp angle: White Sox +146
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
The White Sox have won four of their last five games, but their season record is awful (46-77), so the public still wants nothing to do with them.
Fine by the sharps. They’re buying low on the South Siders tonight.
Chicago enjoys a massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy (36% of bets but 59% of dollars), and the line has moved in its direction (+155 to +146). Goodfellas at CRIS steamed the ChiSox +148.
Chicago is a road divisional dog with a high total, a profitable spot since 2005, and also fits two valuable Bet Labs systems: Bad Team After Win (+164.41 units since 2005) and New Series, All Signs Point to Opponent (+183.86 units since 2005).
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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