Wake and Rake: How to Tail Astros vs. Rangers Sharp Betting Action

Credit:

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alex Bregman.

  • The 2019 MLB regular resumes with tonight's Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers matchup (8:05 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we analyze how sharp money is affecting the line for this game.

The MLB regular season is back! Well, it’s just one game, but the 2019 season resumes with tonight’s Astros-Rangers standalone contest.

Because there is just one MLB matchup tonight, it will single-handedly attract all attention from recreational baseball bettors, pumping up ticket counts and forcing oddsmakers to get more aggressive reacting to lopsided betting action.

And when oddsmakers are more aware of public action, there’s the potential for overadjustments, which is music to the ears of savvy bettors.

The Astros-Rangers total opened at 11 and if you simply rely on opening and current lines, there doesn’t appear to be anything interesting about this number.

However, a look at betting percentages and sharp money indicators reveal otherwise.

According to The Action Network’s public betting data, 55% of tickets have played the over, indicating relatively balanced action overall. On the other hand, 63% of dollars wagered have come in on the under, suggesting that the bigger bets are backing that side of the total.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, which track and report professional betting action in real-time, have triggered two Steam Moves on the under — both at 11.5.

This is an example of why it’s important to dig into line histories and not simply rely on opening and current lines.

In two instances, this number leaked up to 11.5 and was met with professional betting action, driving the total back down to a consensus of 11 across the market.

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