MLB Friday Weather: Winds Impacting 2 AL Central Showdowns
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jakob Junis.
- Using the Action Network's betting tools, we've analyzed how weather is impacting Tigers-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) and Twins-Royals (8:15).
Tigers (M. Boyd) at Indians (T. Bauer)
7:10 p.m. ET
Weather Rating: 39
We have ourselves a potential pitchers’ duel on the shores of Erie tonight with Trevor Bauer hosting Matt Boyd. Bauer, who has been hit or miss this year, is coming off a complete game shutout victory against … drumroll … the Tigers!
He walked zero batters — the first time he’s done so all season — and has allowed just one run over his past two starts.
Matty B, on the other hand, is having his worst stretch of the season. The Tigers have lost Boyd’s last three starts in which he’s posted a 5.63 ERA over 16 innings.
They’ll have some help from the Great Lakes breezes tonight, which will be blowing straight in at about 7 mph.
This total has fallen from 8.5 to 7.5 (o-120) at most books thanks to some lopsided betting activity and sharp action. I personally lay off MLB over/unders that have already moved a run in either direction.
Looking at Bet Labs, unders have historically cashed at a 54.4% rate with winds blowing in, but are just 42-43-1 (49.4%) in those games when the total has fallen one run or more.
Surely several of those losses would have been wins for folks who took the best possible number. Closing line value, baby.
Twins (M. Perez) at Royals (J. Junis)
8:15 p.m. ET
Wind: To Left
Weather Rating: 84
While the weather will help Boyd and Bauer, it’ll do no such thing in Kansas City. In fact, excluding games at Coors Field and Globe Life Park in Arlington, this ranks as the best hitting weather in baseball this season.
In addition to temperatures in the upper 80s, a strong 11-14 mph wind will be blowing out to left field.
Since 2014, this is the 12th game at Kauffman Stadium with a Weather Rating of at least 80 (topping out at 88) per FantasyLabs Trends Tool. In the 11 previous games, there have been 10.7 runs scored on average with the over going 7-4.
These conditions are not what Royals starter Jakob Junis wanted to see, as his 5.33 ERA can be largely attributed to his 1.63 HR/9 — 12th highest of 82 qualified starters. Meanwhile, the Twinkies, whose bats went ice cold against Glenn “The Spark Plug” Sparkman last night, lead the league with 141 dongs.
This total opened at 10 and remained there for 12+ hours before actually falling to 9.5 early this morning. Since then, however, the over has been hit like a twister hitting a tree fort, which has caused it to move up to 10.5.