National vs. Astros World Series Betting Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Game 7
Troy Taormina, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Davey Martinez
- It all comes down to one final game on Wednesday night as the Nationals and Astros face off in Game 7 of the World Series (8:08 p.m. ET, FOX).
- As they have all season long, our MLB experts detail their favorite bets for the final game of the 2019 postseason.
World Series Game 7 Betting Odds: Astros vs. Nationals
Probable starters: Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA)
- Nationals odds: +120
- Astros odds: -140
- Over/Under: 7.5
- First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET on FOX
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
World Series Game 7.
For a neutral fan or a bettor, it doesn’t get any better than this. For Nationals fans, Astros fans or furniture moguls with $20 million on the line? Get ready for the sweat of your lifetime.
The 2019 World Series has already been full of dramatic moments and things hit a fever pitch during Game 6 on Tuesday night. We should expect more fireworks in Game 7, especially with Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke going face to face.
The Astros are -140 favorites on Wednesday night, but the road team has won all six games in this World Series, the first time in more than 1,400 best-of-7 postseason series amongst the MLB, NBA and NHL in which the road team won each of the first six contests.
Will the Nats pull the upset? Or will the Astros cement their legacy as one of the best teams in MLB history.
Here’s how our baseball experts are playing Game 7:
This is a winner-take-all and no matter if you win or lose, there’s no more games until next spring. That means both teams will go with an all-hands-on-deck approach when it comes to pitching.
The Nats will lean on Scherzer and Patrick Corbin to do the heavy lifting, while the Astros will counter with Greinke and Jose Urquidy. That is the scripted version at least, once the game gets going, all bets are off.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander come out for an inning or even just a single batter if the situation calls for it.
Jim Wolf is a fairly neutral umpire in terms of Over/Under splits, so I have no problem taking the Under 7.5 in this type of game.
The Bet: Under 7.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
More than 80% of tickets are on the over in Game 7 but the total of 7.5 has not budged. In heavily bet games, when the public is on the over but the line stays the same or decreases it has been profitable to bet the under.
Not only does history point to the Under but Sean Zerillo’s model projects the teams to score 7.02 runs tonight.
With every pitcher available, batters should have a hard time getting hits in Game 7. The historical data and projections all point to a low scoring game and I’m going to fade the public by betting the Under.
The Bet: Under 7.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
My betting strategy this entire series was to target the Nationals on the First-5-Innings (F5) moneyline and I see no reason to really change it up here. Even if he’s a little banged up, I think Scherzer should be a slight favorite over Greinke in the early going.
Greinke hasn’t been in great form this postseason and the Nats have the lefty bats (Juan Soto, Adam Eaton) to make life difficult on the Astros’ starter.
I also think there’s value on the Under 7.5. These managers will use any pitcher to gain any edge they can, making the job a little harder on the hitters on Wednesday night.
The Bet: Nationals F5 Moneyline, Under 7.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
I projected the Astros as a -111 favorite in this game, and I set the total at 7.02 runs. Therefore, I see value both on the Nationals moneyline and the total.
At listed moneyline odds of +125 (implied 44.4%), I see a three percent gap in expected value on the Nats moneyline, compared to my projection at +111 (implied 47.4%).
I would consider betting Washington’s moneyline down to +128 (implied 43.9%), a 3.5% gap in expected value from my projection.
However, I played their series price at +600 before Game 6. I won’t personally be adding more on or hedging against the Nationals to win Game 7.
My preference is to play the Nats on the F5 moneyline, and I set the cutoff price at +106 (implied 48.5%) — which represents a 3.5% gap in expected value from my projection (-108, implied 52%).
I put two units on the Nationals’ F5 moneyline at +120 (a 6.5% edge) and would alternatively look at playing their F5 spread (+0.5) to -120 in a market where I project them as a small favorite.
Lastly, I played under 7.5 (+105) for a half-unit at 4.5% edge, and would also bet the under if it moved up to 8 (-110), a 4% edge.
The Bets: Nationals F5 Moneyline at +106 or better, Nationals F5 Spread at -120 or better, Under 7.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Scherzer is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball, but there are just too many ways that he hits the under on his strikeout prop.
For starters, we don’t really know how deep he’ll be able to pitch into this game. He’s a gamer — he’s going to want the baseball in his hands as long as he’s still breathing — but he could barely move his arm prior to receiving a cortisone shot on Sunday. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him pitch less effectively or exit the game earlier than usual.
The Astros lineup also represents the toughest possible matchup for right-handed pitchers. They struck out in just 18.4% of at bats vs. right-handers during the regular season, which was the lowest mark in the league.
Scherzer did manage seven strikeouts over five innings vs. the Astros in Game 1 of this series, but he needed 112 pitches to do so. Fellow right-hander Stephen Strasburg has recorded 14 strikeouts over 14.1 innings, which puts his K/9 for this series well below his regular season average of 10.8.
Overall, there’s enough value here to make a pay on the under. That said, pushing on seven is big, so I would not play this prop if it falls to 6.5.
The Bet: Max Scherzer Under 7 Strikeouts [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]