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Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Preview & Predictions: How to Bet the Total in Philadelphia (September 11)

Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Preview & Predictions: How to Bet the Total in Philadelphia (September 11) article feature image
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Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola

  • The Phillies host the Nationals in the finale of this three-game set.
  • Aaron Nola takes the ball for the Phillies, and Anibal Sanchez gets the start for the Nationals.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet below.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds

Nationals Odds +255
Phillies Odds -305
Over/Under 8 (-110/-110)
Time 1:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final game of this NL East intradivisional series with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Washington Nationals. Philadelphia opened as a massive favorite with right-handed ace Aaron Nola slated to take the mound.

Will the Phillies take care of business, or can the Nationals grab an upset as large, road underdogs?

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Washington Nationals: Sanchez has Found his Form

Taking the mound for the Washington Nationals is right-hander Anibal Sanchez. Through 10 starts this season, Sanchez is 2-5 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

However, those numbers are deceiving. His first start of the season was in the middle of July, which also happened to be his first time on an MLB mound since 2020.

Obviously, those first few outings were rusty and led to some poor numbers. That being said, Sanchez has settled in and has been much stronger from the bump.

Over his past four starts, he is 2-0 with a 0.84 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. We should expect this strong pitching to continue against Philadelphia, a team Sanchez has fared well against over the past few seasons.

Across his past five starts against the Phillies, he is 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Following Sanchez is an underrated bullpen.

Since August 1, Washington’s relief pitching ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, WHIP and BA. However, this pitching staff may not get much run support as the Nationals are slated to go against right-hander Aaron Nola.

Through 104 career plate appearances against Nola, this current Washington roster possesses a mere .194 BA, .286 SLG and a .339 wOBA.

Philadelphia Phillies: Will Nola Spin Another Gem?

Aaron Nola is slated to take the mound for Philadelphia. Through 27 starts this season, Nola is 9-11 with a 3.35 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP.

It has been a strong campaign for Nola and, based on his metrics, we shouldn’t see any regression because he boasts a .261 xwOBA, .213 xBA and a .346 xSLG. This strong pitching should continue against Washington, a team he has dominated this year and throughout his career.

Through three starts against the Nationals this season, Nola is 1-1 with a 1.66 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP.

The Philadelphia lineup has succeeded against right-handed pitching this season. However, Sanchez is in a great rhythm right now and has fared well against this team in the past.

Nationals-Phillies Pick

We are getting good value on this total for two reasons. First, as mentioned above, Philadelphia usually hits well against right-handed pitching.

However, I am not as worried about their lineup as they are going against Sanchez, a guy who is in great form and has succeeded against the Phillies. The other reason for this generous total is the Phillies’ poor bullpen.

While that would normally be a big concern for me, Nola typically goes deep into games and should limit the damage they may pose. For example, he has gone six or more innings in all three of his starts against the Nationals this season.

Pick: Nationals/Phillies u8 (-110) | Play up to (-125)

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