The Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets on September 24, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mets vs Cubs Prediction
- Mets vs Cubs picks: Cubs ML (-120) | Play to -130
My Mets vs Cubs best bet is the Cubs moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Cubs Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 7 -120o / 100u | +100 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 7 -120o / 100u | -120 |
Mets vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jonah Tong (NYM) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 13-8 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 5.94 / 4.20 | ERA /xERA | 3.20 / 3.70 |
| 4.23 / 3.54 | FIP / xFIP | 3.60 / 4.18 |
| 1.44 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 19.2% | K-BB% | 15.8% |
| 33.3% | GB% | 37.9% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 90 | Location+ | 107 |
Kenny Ducey’s Mets vs Cubs Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Be Wary of Tong's Fastball Usage
It's anyone's guess how a rookie is going to do down the stretch in a playoff race, and it's not as if Jonah Tong has made it any easier to project how he's going to pitch in this one. He's flashed some excellent strikeout upside right out of the gates which has been incredibly impressive, but he's also fallen victim to walks in matchups with more patient offenses and has left himself liable to extra-base hits with his low ground-ball rate.
That's the snapshot on Tong, and if we dig beneath the surface we'll see that he's become increasingly-reliant upon his fastball with his changeup usage dropping significantly last start and his curveball and slider seldom-used.
It could make things complicated, because with more time in the league there are going to be more hitters wise to Tong's approach. The Cubs haven't seen him yet, but they do rank top-10 in Expected Batting Average versus fastballs from righties and own the ninth-lowest whiff rate.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Trust Boyd in Home Park
Matthew Boyd is a very well-known commodity by now, and all he's done in Chicago this season is earn his very modest paycheck. The lefty has pitched to a 3.20 ERA across 174 1/3 innings, and while his .248 xBA isn't all that exciting he certainly hasn't been lucky on account of his outfield defense ranking second in Outs Above Average this season.
Boyd's enjoyed pitching at home, too, where he owns a 2.45 ERA in 84 1/3 innings. Though he's yielded more home runs, he's given up significantly fewer hits which is a key here given Boyd is a stalwart in the walks department.
That makes for an interesting matchup against a Mets team which owns the fifth-best home run-to-fly ball ratio in the league over the past two weeks. In theory, you'd think that puts Boyd in some immediate danger, but the Mets are significantly worse against lefties this year — ranking just 14th in wRC+ versus first in the reverse split — and are also hitting just .255 with a .181 Isolated Power in those last 14 days.
Mets vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets seem to have a number of factors working against them here from their struggles with lefties and their growing contact problems. They've struck out in 24.4% of plate appearances over the last two weeks, and Boyd certainly doesn't need any further help with the way he's pitched to contact in the air.
I realize it's been a tough month and a half for the lefty, but he's remained effective and hasn't been overly generous when it comes to giving up baserunners. Given the Mets' biggest weapon in these situations seems to be the home run — something Boyd hasn't surrendered many of at home — there's enough of a reason here to back the Cubs even if they've clinched a spot in the playoffs already.
Pick: Cubs ML (-120) | Play to -130
Moneyline
I like the Cubs to win outright. Take the moneyline up to -130.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going to avoid the spread here.
Over/Under
I won't take the over/under either.
