The Miami Marlins host the New York Mets on May 23, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Marlins are -112 on the moneyline. The Mets are -104 on the moneyline. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Marlins Prediction
- Mets vs Marlins Pick: Marlins F5 ML (-115 or Better)
Mets vs Marlins Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | -104 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | -112 |
Mets vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| Freddy Peralta (RHP, NYM) | Stat | Max Meyer (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 4-0 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.31 / 3.87 | ERA / xERA | 2.85 / 4.07 |
| 4.04 / 3.99 | FIP / xFIP | 3.06 / 3.50 |
| 12.4% | K-BB% | 18.2% |
| 40.9% | GB% | 40.1% |
| .253 | BABIP | .266 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 104 | Location+ | 109 |
Mets vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Max Meyer has taken a significant step forward this year. His K-BB% has increased from 10.9% to 16.2% to 18.2% each of the last three years, with swinging strike rate improvements from 10.3% to 11.9% to 14.3%.
While suffering a 10-point drop in his ground ball rate, Meyer has already nearly doubled his popups from last year (four to seven) and reduced his hard hit rate from 48% to 42%.
The barrels are still a concern, and the drop from a 19.8 HR/FB to 7.4% might not be entirely sustainable, but his BABIP (.328 to .266) and strand rate (71.2% to 78.4%) have straightened themselves out, maybe not to the point where they are entirely sustainable either, but the peripherals are on an upward trend.
His 3.51 xFIP is exactly the same as last season, and his only indicator not to improve, but with a 4.73 ERA last year, the Marlins will certainly take that.
In fact, that’s right around where I have Meyer rated overall, matching his pitch modeling (3.49 Bot ERA, 107 Pitching+). While the former has improved from 3.70, the latter remains at its 2025 mark (also 107), suggesting that this type of performance was in him all along, nothing that anyone who followed him as a prospect is surprised to see.
Meanwhile, I wouldn’t call Freddy Peralta a disappointment, but his 3.31 ERA is hiding more pedestrian peripherals.
Last year’s 19.1% K-BB is down to 12.4%, easily a career worst with his velocity (93.9 mph) down a mph from last season (94.8).
The pitch modeling has regressed from a 3.94 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+ to a more league-average 4.26 and 100.
By just about every metric other than ERA, Peralta has been no better than a league-average pitcher.
Now, his .253 BABIP is actually five points higher than last year and only 11 points below his career .264 mark, but Freddy has a different and lesser defense behind him this season (though the Brewers have also been below average defensively this year, too, with some injuries).
There’s no reason Peralta shouldn’t regress a bit more towards the team BABIP of .291 allowed.
The point is, whether it’s by ERA or underlying metrics, Max Meyer has been a half-run better than Freddy Peralta this year. Maybe (and hopefully for Mets fans) it won’t end that way, but I don’t think it will be due to a Meyer flop if he remains healthy.
Mets vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
With some of the younger players for both teams coming around this season, I have both offenses rated as average.
As mentioned, the Mets don’t have a good defense, but their projected lineups' -1 FRV is a run ahead of Miami.
The Mets have far superior pen estimators over the last 30 days, which has me finding much more value in an F5 line (-108) that’s the same as the full game number. It’s a small edge that may not even be there in the morning, but it’s present now.
Pick: Marlins F5 ML (-115 or Better)
