Perfect Weather, Lopsided Betting in Padres-Rockies Leading to Highest Over/Under of 2019

Perfect Weather, Lopsided Betting in Padres-Rockies Leading to Highest Over/Under of 2019 article feature image
Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Peter Lambert.

  • The over/under for Sunday's Padres-Rockies game (3:10 p.m. ET) is up to 13 -- the highest total of the 2019 MLB season.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we break down how similar games have fared historically.

Two rookie pitchers are on the mound in Coors Field on Sunday as the Padres look to split their four-game series against the Rockies after a 14-8 loss on Saturday.

Padres (N. Margevicious) at Rockies (P. Lambert)

Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
Weather Rating: 97
Betting Odds: Rockies -147, Padres +137
Over/Under: 13

That’s right folks, a baker’s dozen! That’s how high oddsmakers have set the bar at Coors Field today, which marks the first total of 13 since August of 2018. Let’s dive into the details.

This total actually opened at just a normal dozen yesterday, but it has risen a full run behind more than 75% of both bets and dollars. It’s probably tough for folks to resist considering the Padres and Rockies have combined for 15, 28, and 22 runs in each of the first three games of the series, respectively.

Though there is a slight breeze blowing in, the weather will otherwise be perfect for hitting. Historically, it hasn’t really mattered what the wind does at Coors Field — the elevation truly trumps everything.

According to Bet Labs, unders with the wind blowing in at Coors have gone just 70-79-6 (47%)  — 7% worse than wind-in unders have done in general.

This would be the 24th time since 2004 that there’s been a total of 13 or higher, with 17 of the previous 23 also taking place at Coors Field. Interestingly enough, the two highest totals we’ve ever tracked — 14.5 and 14 — both took place at Wrigley Field. Each of the five games at Wrigley with a total of 13 or higher have had winds blowing out of at least 19 mph.

Anywho, let’s get back to this game and discuss how to approach it in terms of DFS and betting.

High Weather Ratings at Coors Field aren’t incredibly rare

Since 2014, there have been more than 50 games with a Weather Rating of 95-plus. Shockingly enough, pitchers have fared terribly on the DFS scene, posting a Plus/Minus of -2.25, per the FantasyLabs Trends Tool. Hitters have managed to exceed their steep expectations and lofty price tags by posting a Plus/Minus of +1.37.

Should you take the over or under?

With the total already up a run, I personally don’t find any value in the over at this point. Overs have gone 12-8-3 in games with totals of 13 or higher, but that’s not much of a sample size to go off of.

Value on the Padres?

Divisional dogs have excelled in games with totals of 12 or higher at Coors Field, going 28-27 for an 8-unit profit. That is still not a huge sample size, but a simple betting trend that we’ve liked for years is playing division dogs in games with high totals, and this takes that to the extreme.

Just 25% of bettors are backing Nick Margevicious and the Fathers, but they’ve gone from +135 to +131 since opening.