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Padres vs. Athletics Odds, Preview, Prediction: San Diego Has Strong Matchup vs. Oakland (Wednesday, August 4)

Padres vs. Athletics Odds, Preview, Prediction: San Diego Has Strong Matchup vs. Oakland (Wednesday, August 4) article feature image

Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove.

  • The Padres look to take their brief two-game series against the Athletics on Wednesday afternoon.
  • Joe Musgrove looks to continue what has been a strong debut season for the Friars opposite Oakland's Frankie Montas.
  • Mike Vitanza breaks down the matchup below and delivers his best bet for the game.

Padres vs. Athletics Odds

Padres Odds-115
Athletics Odds-105
TimeWednesday, 3:37 p.m. ET
TVMLB Network
Odds as of Wednesday and via BetMGM

The San Diego Padres took the first game of this interleague series against the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday night by the score of 8-1 on the road and go for a brief two-game sweep on Wednesday afternoon.

The Padres were led offensively by strong performances from Tommy Pham, Austin Nola and Trent Grisham, all of whom had multi-hit games in the victory. Pham delivered a home run to lead off the game, while Nola contributed four hits and drove in two runs.

The Athletics, meanwhile, managed seven hits on the day but were horrible with runners in scoring position, finishing 0-for-13. A Starling Marte home run in the fifth inning accounted for their only run in the loss.

Can the Padres make it two in a row on the road this afternoon, or should we expect the Athletics to even the series at home with Frankie Montas on the mound?

Steady Musgrove Takes on Oakland

Joe Musgrove will take the hill in what will be his 21st start of the season for the Padres.

All things considered, Musgrove's first season in San Diego has been a success. Over 116 1/3 innings, he’s compiled a 3.36 FIP, retired batters at a strong 10.37 K/9 clip and done well to avoid hard contact, permitting just a 6.4% barrel rate to opponents so far. That’s also helped to keep the ball in the park, as evidenced by his low 1.01 HR/9 average thus far.

Musgrove is also coming off one of his best starts of the season last Thursday against the Rockies, during which he pitched seven shutout innings and allowed just three hits while striking out 11. It was also his longest outing since June 17 against the Cincinnati Reds. Prior to that, he had averaged just under five innings per start in his previous six appearances.

Tonight, the Padres right-hander will take on an Athletics team that has been just average against right-handed pitching so far this season. To date, Oakland has collectively hit to a .308 wOBA and 99 wRC+, good for 15th in MLB.

While the Padres will hope Musgrove can give them seven strong innings for the second start in a row, at some point they’ll turn the ball over to a bullpen that has been one of the best in baseball so far this season. Over 450 1/3 innings, they’ve combined for a 3.85 FIP that ranks fifth in the majors.

Montas Due for Shaky Outing?

Montas will get the nod for the Athletics, who will have to make a quick turnaround on Wednesday afternoon.

The veteran starter has been an important piece of the starting rotation this season in Oakland. Over 119 innings, he’s pitched to a 3.64 FIP and struck out opposing batters at an impressive 9.98 K/9 clip. He’s also been successful in limiting the long ball, holding opponents to just 1.21 home runs per nine innings over his first 21 starts of the season.

That said, there is some cause for concern. His 44% Hard Hit rate (per Statcast) and 9.4% barrel percentage are each well above average, both signs that we may see some negative regression coming for him in the near future.

Montas' matchup tonight against the Padres isn’t a great one, either. The Padres have been one of the better teams in all of baseball against right-handed pitching this season, collectively hitting to a .323 wOBA (ninth in MLB). They’ve also been hot at the plate of late, averaging 5.6 runs per game over their last five games.

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Padres-Athletics Pick

While Montas has had a solid season on the mound for Oakland, I’m betting that the hot-hitting Padres will be able to take advantage of the matchup here and exploit a pitcher whose results appear to have been a bit lucky. Not only does San Diego hit right-handed pitching well, it has also been capitalizing on opportunistic mismatches lately.

On the mound, Musgrove and a strong Padres bullpen are more than capable of taking care of an A’s team that has been merely average against righties this season and suddenly finds itself losers of two of the last three games.

I like the Padres moneyline here on the road and would play it all the way up to the -125 range if necessary.

Pick: Padres (-115, play to -125)

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