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Padres vs. Giants Odds, Pick & Preview: San Francisco, Alex Wood Have Edge in Early Litmus Test (April 11)

Padres vs. Giants Odds, Pick & Preview: San Francisco, Alex Wood Have Edge in Early Litmus Test (April 11) article feature image
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Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Wood

  • The Giants are home favorites against the Padres on Monday night.
  • Both teams passed early tests, but face a still step-up in competition in this NL West duel.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Padres vs. Giants Odds

Padres Odds +130
Giants Odds -150
Over/Under 8.5
Time 9:45 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Coming off a successful opening series against the Diamondbacks which saw them win three of four, the San Diego Padres will travel to San Francisco for what is sure to be a much tougher test in the form of the Giants.

With a step up in competition and a strong lefty on the hill, is it a good time to fade San Diego? Let’s have a look at this matchup.

Padres’ Bats Hot Early

The Padres have little to complain about at the moment. After dropping their Opening Day affair in Arizona on a Seth Beer walk-off home run, they responded with three straight victories to head into this series on a heater. Through just four games, San Diego is ranked in the top 10 of most offensive categories and is ranked eighth in wRC+ to lefties.

Of course, these early numbers are going to change very dramatically in the coming weeks and months, and I don’t anticipate San Diego remaining in the top 10 in this split as long as Fernando Tatis, Jr. remains sidelined.

Jurickson Profar and Austin Nola have been the lone right-handed bats producing anything at the plate, with Ha-Seong Kim, Luke Voit, Wil Myers and even Manny Machado struggling in the early going. It also doesn’t take an expert to realize that it’ll be easier to hit Diamondbacks pitching than it will be to hit most other pitching in the National League.

So, the offense will be something of a mystery. Speaking of, who knows what we’ll see out of Nick Martinez? The Fordham legend will get the ball on Monday in San Francisco, and it’ll be his first appearance in the major leagues since 2017, when he finished up a three-year stint with the Texas Rangers.

In the meantime, Martinez has been pitching well in Japan, compiling a 3.02 ERA in three seasons. He could be the latest in an increasingly long line of players heading overseas and improving their craft.

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Giants’ Wood Solid, Bullpen Stellar

The Giants are in a somewhat similar boat as the Padres, taking two of three from the Miami Marlins to begin the season. They’ll also be in search of a good litmus test, and given the state of San Diego’s roster it remains to be seen if they’ll find one this week.

San Francisco can at least hang its hat on an impressive win over Miami with a stellar lefty on the hill in the form of Trevor Rogers. The Giants were able to muster up six hits and a walk off Rogers in a win on Sunday, scoring the three runs required to beat him in the first five frames.

Their strong bullpen would take it from there, allowing just three hits over the final 4 1/3 innings of the game.

While the offense will come in feeling good about itself, it shouldn’t have to do much work behind Alex Wood if last year is any indication. The lefty rebounded after a couple of brutal, albeit incredibly short seasons, posting a 3.83 ERA in 2021 backed up by a 3.92 xERA.

His strikeout rate was a career-best 26%, and his walk rate was yet again better than league average. Behind him, of course, will be a bullpen which is held in high regard.

Padres-Giants Pick

The Padres are a puzzle on Monday night. There’s not a soul who knows for sure how Martinez is going to look after his time away from the major leagues, and it also doesn’t seem sustainable that an offense could continue winning when so many key righties struggled against Arizona of all teams.

I’m inclined to buy into Wood and the Giants here based on nothing else but Wood’s track record of being an above-average lefty, the Padres’ middling lineup and the quality of each team’s opponents. There is not much else you can really look at less than a week into the season.

Pick: Giants ML (-150)

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