MLB Odds & Picks for Padres vs. Rockies: Why Machado & San Diego Bats Are Ready for Coors Field
Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado
- The Padres are short road favorites on Tuesday night at Coors Field against the Rockies.
- Both teams are expected to put up runs, but the Padres' righty bats have the most favorable matchup tonight.
- Nick Martin breaks down the game and shares his best bet below.
Padres vs. Rockies Odds
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Colorado’s late surge in the first matchup of this three-game set fell short as the Padres hung on for a 6-5 victory Monday.
Tuesday’s contest has the look of another potential shootout at Coors Field, with a game total set at 11 as Austin Gomber takes the mound for the Rockies in a matchup against Mike Clevinger and the Padres.
Will San Diego build on Monday’s win in another favorable spot?
Machado and Padres Righties Should Thrive Against Gomber
San Diego’s offense entered this series in somewhat of a stale stretch prior to Monday’s contest, but it took advantage of a soft matchup against Jose Ureña at Coors Field.
Tuesday’s contest offers a similar storyline as the Padres face Gomber, who has pitched to a 6.64 ERA over 39 and a third innings at Coors this season.
This should be another strong matchup for Manny Machado in particular, who has batted to an elite .318 average against right-handed pitching.
Right-handed batters are hitting an identical .318 against Austin Gomber this year, which is the third-worst mark among starting pitchers with over 40 innings pitched this season.
Are Gomber and the Rockies Due for Regression?
Gomber does appear to be due for some positive regression moving forward, as his actual ERA of 6.46 is over a full run above his expected mark of 5.11. However, he has pitched to an alarmingly high WHIP of 1.58 at Coors compared to 1.32 on the road.
Gomber has allowed an OPS of .939 to right-handed batters this season, which is the second-highest mark in the league among pitchers who have pitched over 40 innings.
He actually sits in the upper half of the league in both Hard-Hit Rates and Average Exit Velocity this season. However, striking out just 17.7% of batters is always likely to be a bigger problem at Coors than any other park, and that has been an Achilles heel for him.
San Diego is likely to manage another strong offensive output Tuesday off of Gomber, who has struggled badly this season within the confines of Coors Field.
Specifically, this is a great matchup for Machado, who started the series in fine form with a homer yesterday, as he matches up very well with Gomber.
Five ABs for Machado is realistic today, and managing a combination of either two hits with one going for extra bases or a homer seems more likely than a +110 number suggests.
Even at a rare over/under of 2.5 total bases, I’m still happy to look toward Machado in this spot and would play the over down to +100.
Pick: Manny Machado Over 2.5 Bases +110
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