Monday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Phillies vs. Brewers Betting Preview (Sept. 6)

Phillies vs. Brewers Odds

A potential National League Division Series matchup gets underway on Monday in Milwaukee as the Brewers host the Phillies for a three-game set. Philadelphia is two games out of first behind Atlanta with 26 games to play, but should the Phillies pass the Braves, they'd likely face Milwaukee.

The Brewers are quietly the NL's hottest team over the past two months and have their sights set on the top seed in the league playoffs and potential home field advantage, as they sit just 3.5 games behind the Giants. The division is all but secured thanks to their elite pitching staff, headlined by Monday starter Brandon Woodruff.

It's a battle of aces, though as the Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler and are undervalued to win their fifth game in five tries against Milwaukee this season. Woodruff's concerning drop-off in recent performance suggests he's not pitching nearly as well as he was early in the season.

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Phillies' Wheeler Still Dominant

Zack Wheeler had one of his worst starts of the year against Washington on Monday night in the Phillies' win. He was given an extra day off on top of the extra day off he already would have had. And he's actually been the better starter in this matchup based on xERA, FIP and other underlying metrics.

He had a couple hiccups after being left in too long in prior starts, but the Philadelphia right-hander has posted a career high strikeout rate, career low walk rate and has a 2.77 xERA.

The Phillies did have a bullpen day on Sunday where they used nearly the entire bullpen, but two of their best relievers in Héctor Neris and José Alvarado should be available following limited work. Any edge Milwaukee has in the later innings because of a better bullpen is blunted by the Wheeler and Woodruff pitching deep into games.

Philadelphia's offense went into a tailspin throughout most of August, but their strikeout numbers were down for the entire month and that has carried into September. The BABIP luck finally came around for the offense, as they've scored seven or more runs in seven of their last 10 games.

Is Brewers' Woodruff Regressing a Bit?

Brandon Woodruff's ERA sits at an impressive 2.35, but that doesn't tell the whole story of his performance this year. His 3.04 xFIP and 3.12 xERA suggest that he's been a bit fortunate to run that well based on quality of contact allowed.

He's very good and one of the best starters in the NL, but his ERA increased more than a half run since July began, his walks are up and he hasn't been going quite as deep into games in his last few starts.

As good as the Milwaukee offense has been in the last two months during this hot stretch, their season long numbers don't paint them as a top 10 unit. They are 17th in wRC+ against righties for the year, outside the top 10 in medium and hard hit rate and middle of the pack in strikeout rate.

They've feasted on some of the really bad starting pitching within their division, teams like Pittsburgh, Chicago and St. Louis, but haven't fared well when facing some of the better arms in the league.

Phillies-Brewers Pick

Milwaukee's lineup has been running a bit hot and over its talent level for the past two months, and they're long overdue for some regression from some of their top hitters.

In this matchup of two aces, the Phillies have the better starter as Woodruff has regressed some in the last two months. The game shouldn't be lined at a pick'em because Milwaukee is the better overall team and playing at home, but +120 is enough for me to play on Philadelphia.

BetMGM has a +125 as of Monday morning.

Pick: Phillies at +120 or better