MLB Odds, Picks, Preview & Predictions for Phillies vs Diamondbacks: Target This Aaron Nola Prop Bet (Tuesday, August 30)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola
- After blowing a seven-run lead on Monday, the Phillies look for revenge today.
- Starter Zac Gallen has been a strong point for the Diamondbacks but has struggled against the Phillies.
- Nicholas Martin explains why he's targeting a prop bet for the other starter.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Philadelphia appeared to be on cruise control early in Monday’s contest while up 7-0 midway through the fourth inning, before producing an ultimate shocker and allowing 12 runs over the next two half-innings en route to a 13-7 loss.
The Phillies will look to bounce back from that embarrassing collapse in short order when it sends ace Aaron Nola to the mound Tuesday for a battle with Zac Gallen.
Will Nola keep Arizona‘s offense in check?
Phillies’ Aaron Nola Among Best Pitchers in Baseball
Philadelphia’s offense was again notably strong in Monday’s shocking 13-7 defeat, and a similar output should likely lead to a far better result in a contest with Aaron Nola on the mound.
Nola has been one of the better pitchers in baseball in 2022, with an xERA of just 2.61 throughout 166.2 innings, and an actual mark of 3.08.
Nola has effectively thrown a four-pitch mix all season, with strong put-away marks on his three most commonly used pitches, which has helped to generate strong strikeout rates and an elite chase rate.
Those areas of success have recently remained consistent. Nola has averaged 9.33 strikeouts per game over his last three games, including two contests versus the Mets, and throughout August has pitched to a stellar strike rate of 71% altogether.
Nola has consistently used his elite curveball as a put-away pitch. Hitters have chased 51% of his breaking balls down and out of the zone during the 2022 season, and that area of dominance could quite likely continue Tuesday against a D-Backs side that holds the fourth-worst pitch value in baseball against the curveball.
Since the start of last season, Nola has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 72% of batters, and the ability to consistently get ahead in the count and then use a variety of put-away pitches has surely been a large part of his consistently high strikeout rates even while featuring a low-end fastball by velocity and a middling spin-rate.
Regression for Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen?
Arizona will look to stay hot after Monday’s massive 13-run performance, which built upon an August which has featured very reasonable results at the plate, including a wRC+ of 101.
On the season, Arizona has struck out fewer batters than you might expect versus right-handed pitching, with a 12th lowest strikeout rate of 21.4%, albeit with a wRC+ of just 93.
Zac Gallen has also been a clear area of strength for Arizona again in 2022, but it is worth noting that his 3.45 xERA and 3.51 xFIP do suggest regression could be on the horizon and that he has run with some favorable luck.
Gallen has also struggled mightily historically in previous matchups of the Phillies lineup pitching to an xwOBA of .427, albeit in a smaller sample size of 27 PAs.
With Aaron Nola on the mound, I certainly lean toward a Phillies bounce-back in this spot with their offense producing at a consistent clip of late. But at -140 we need the Phillies to win 61% of the time to be profitable, which seems just about fair.
What projects to be far more valuable in my eyes is backing Nola to go over his strikeout prop of 6.5, which can still be had at -115 on bet365. Therefore, it seems a great price considering he’s gone over that number in seven of his past eight contests as well as 10-of-12, with some sound reasoning as to why.
The Phillies are still far from securing a wild card berth in the NL, and should Nola manage a solid outing Tuesday, it is unlikely to expect an early departure in this spot, especially should Zac Gallen keep the game within reach for the Diamondbacks.
Pick: Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts -115 (Play to -120)
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