Phillies vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value With Underdog to Win (Saturday, August 13)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola.
- The Mets are favored to beat the Phillies in a battle of aces.
- Aaron Nola will square off with Jacob DeGrom in a premier matchup.
- Nicholas Martin outlines the value to be had below.
Phillies vs. Mets Odds
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Philadelphia stayed red-hot with its 2-1 win in the series opener, and it has now been victorious in 14 of its last 16 contests.
DeGrom has appeared true to form in two starts since making his season debut, and in turn the Mets are significant favorites to take this contest at -210.
Philadelphia hung around and stole a win in Max Scherzer’s game last night, so could we see a similar storyline on Saturday?
Phillies With Premier Pitching on Saturday
Philadelphia’s recent tear has it sitting with an 81.3% chance to make the playoffs according to FanGraphs, and the Phillies get there the team would hold a realistic chance of making some noise.
That’s in large part due to Nola, who can go head-to-head with some of the league’s best starters and give his team a fighting shot, as he will hope to do in this contest against DeGrom.
Nola has pitched to an ERA of 2.39 over his last 4 outings, with a WHIP of just 1.02 during throughout 26.33 innings during that span.
On the season, Nola features a first-pitch strike rate of 70%, which is the highest mark amongst qualified starters, and getting ahead in the count has been a successful formula for him.
Analytically, Nola’s profile suggests the strong results should continue, and over the season he features an xERA of 2.83.
As you would expect from a team which is racking up win-after-win of late, the Phillies have been in tremendous offensive form.
Philadelphia has hit to a fourth-best wRC+ of 126 over the last 14 days, with a woba of .353.
Mets in Similar Position
DeGrom has looked like his usual self throughout the season’s initial 10 1/3 innings while pitching to a ridiculous xERA of 1.16.
Last time out versus the Braves, DeGrom managed 12 Ks, and claimed his first win of the season.
He was limited to a 75-pitch count in that start and we can presume New York will play it safe in that regard for today’s contest, although it is certainly worth attempting to gather any word on that from a handicapping standpoint prior to fist pitch.
New York’s recent tear has come with an offensive surge as well, with a 143 wRC+ and .369 both going as the second best mark’s in the MLB since July 31st.
Both of these teams have displayed some tremendous baseball as of late and this contest is a high-point on Saturday’s slate that many are surely excited to see.
For whatever reason New York has historically had a tough time providing DeGrom with much run support, and it’s certainly possible we see a similar narrative play out Saturday with Nola taking the mound for the Phillies.
Runs could be at a premium in this matchup, and with the kind of form Philadelphia has displayed recently and the quality of pitcher it has on the mound, I feel they are in with a better shot than a +175 number suggests in what should be another nail-biter.
I see value backing the Phillies looking for another surprising victory as they continue to push for a Wild Card berth.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +175 (Play to +170)