MLB Odds & Picks for Phillies vs. Padres: Where Does the Value Lie in San Diego?

MLB Odds & Picks for Phillies vs. Padres: Where Does the Value Lie in San Diego? article feature image

Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Yu Darvish.

  • The Phillies and Padres wrap up a weekend series with a pair of quality pitchers taking the mound.
  • Kyle Gibson will get the start for Philadelphia and Yu Darvish will take the ball for San Diego.
  • Nicholas Martin explains his best bet below.

Phillies vs. Padres Odds

Phillies Odds+115
Padres Odds-135
Over/Under8 (-110/-110)
Time4:10 p.m. ET
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Phillies bats will face a stiff test Sunday afternoon at Petco Park as they face off against Yu Darvish, who has a 1.34 ERA at home in 2022.

Philadelphia will counter with Kyle Gibson, who has struggled and posted a 4.56 ERA in the month of June.

Will San Diego take advantage of a potential starting pitching mismatch?

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Philadelphia Phillies: Will Gibson Get Back on Track?

Kyle Gibson has struggled throughout the month of June, but his underlying metrics have remained consistent with what we have seen throughout the season. I think it's logical to believe Gibson should trend toward more average results moving forward.

Gibson's xERA of 3.78 suggests he is due to fare better soon, especially once his opponents batting average with RISP trend downward from .354, which is the second highest mark in the league amongst qualified starters this season.

Gibson features a well above league average QOPA of 4.76, which features plus ratings on four pitches, including an elite mark of 5.72 on his sinker.

It's been well documented that the Phillies lineup has been significantly more potent versus left-handed pitching. Against righties this season, Philadelphia has hit to a wRC+ of 97 with a wOBA of .311.

San Diego Padres: Can Darvish Stay Dominant at Home?

Yu Darvish will look to finish off a red-hot month of June in style on Sunday against a Phillies squad that has struggled against right handers. Darvish has pitched to a 0.74 WHIP through 35 1/3 innings and has seen his opponents xwOBA trend downward over the past 100 plate appearances.

Darvish has allowed a .SLG of just .289, which is the second best mark amongst qualified starters this season.

Offensively, the Padres appear likely to regress moving forward, especially playing in contests without Manny Machado.

San Diego owns the league's third-worst xSLG rate at .401, yet sits in 19th in slugging. San Diego also hold the league's 12th highest BABIP, yet the league's fifth lowest xBA (.247).

The Padres have been scorching hot over the past 15 games, during which they have a 128 wRC+ and a .329 wOBA. However, they have faced some below average pitching staffs during that time (Rockies, Cubs and Diamondbacks).

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Phillies-Padres Pick

Yu Darvish has been dominant at home this season and he gets a better than average matchup against the Phillies, who have struggled versus right-handers this season.

San Diego's shorthanded lineup shouldn't figure to be overly potent moving forward and shouldn't provide as much resistance for Kyle Gibson as one might expect.

With each pitcher likely to thrive Sunday, playing the first five innings under four, at almost even money, looks like a strong proposition to me. I would back this down to -120.

Pick: Under 4 First 5 Innings -110 (Play to -120)

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