The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 6, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Diamondbacks are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Pick: Under 8
My Pirates vs Diamondbacks best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8 -110o / -110u | +114 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -110o / -110u | -134 |
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Pirates +114, Diamondbacks -134
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks over/under: 8 (-105o / -115u)
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks spread: Pirates +1.5 (-182), Diamondbacks -1.5 (+150)
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| Paul Skenes, RHP | Stat | Mike Soroka, RHP |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.18 / 2.24 | ERA / xERA | 4.70 / 5.10 |
| 3.17 / 3.07 | FIP / xFIP | 3.24 / 3.32 |
| 24.1% | K-BB% | 19.9% |
| 47% | GB% | 38.4% |
| .222 | BABIP | .376 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 113 | Location+ | 107 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates' offense has finally stalled a bit after a blistering week or so of games against division rivals, but now they'll turn back to Paul Skenes on Wednesday as they look to get back to winning ways.
Pittsburgh is still above .500 at 19-17 and just had a three-game winning streak snapped in a 9-0 defeat to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, and with their ace on the hill the pressure should be at a relative low.
Skenes may not have started his season in his usual ceremonious fashion, but as we've seen in his short, yet studded career, he's gone right back to work ever since.
The righty is sporting a 2.25 Expected ERA, which would represent a career best, and while his strikeout rate is still on the wrong side of 30%, coming in just a fraction lower for a second straight season is going to do just fine.
The flamethrower has seen a slight uptick in ground balls and a slight downturn in contact through the air, with his Pull Air% dropping down a percentage point from last season to sit around the league average. That's helped his Expected Slugging fall back down to .302 — well below the league's .408 average, and his hard-hit rate has also plummeted nine points.
It doesn't seem like Skenes could get any better, but this season he's deployed his changeup, which is essentially a new pitch, to great success in keeping the ball out of the air.
The one catch here is that the Diamondbacks do crush ground-ball pitchers, ranking fourth in OPS this season, whereas they're just 16th against fly-ballers. Skenes doesn't really constitute as either, frankly, but the slight change in his batted ball profile does have him in that ground-baller territory.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
Mike Soroka is…trying his best, I guess you'd say.
The righty really was never supposed to stick around this long in the league after his once-promising career was decimated by injury, but he's still just 28 and one team is hoping to pry that upside out of him.
Arizona's a good place for that, playing inside of a pitcher-friendly park, and Soroka has certainly gotten the message in posting a 60.2% rate of contact through the air, which is four points higher than average and also represents a career high. The issue is that 21.6% of his contact is pulled in the air, which opens up the possibility for damage, and while he's given up just three homers on the year, he's posted an ugly .462 xSLG.
Of course, only one of those homers has come in Arizona, and pitching at home, he's recorded a 1.64 ERA in 22 innings as opposed to a 12.46 ERA in two road starts, spanning 8 2/3 frames. This would seem to set up nicely, then, with the Pirates hitting fly-ballers worse and sporting a meek .135 Isolated Power in the last two weeks.
Arizona's offense hasn't been bad at all, ranking sixth in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a solid .182 ISO and decent discipline numbers. It could stand to walk a bit more, coming in with an 8.6% free-pass rate in that span, but the 21.8% strikeout rate is a good sign when you're about to face a strikeout artist like Skenes.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
Soroka should have a good shot at recording plenty of outs on contact, even with the Pirates' recent success at the plate, given their lack of power.
The Pirates are also walking a ton, which isn't going to help them much against a pitcher that's cut back on his walks significantly in the last couple of years, and their run of magic in cashing in runners with base knocks could also come to an end against a stellar Diamondbacks defense.
It's very tempting to take Arizona on the moneyline here, given its success against ground-ball pitchers and knack for making contact, but Pittsburgh's offense is still humming and faces a much weaker pitcher who's going to be reliant on his park.
The Pirates are certainly a team that likes to hit the ball on the ground — taking Soroka's brilliant outfield defense somewhat out of the equation — and it's got a pretty well-rested bullpen to boot.
I see both pitchers having success here, and I'm not scared of the full-game total even with some recent struggles for both bullpens. This should be a cagey affair.
Pick: Under 8 (-115, FanDuel) | Play to -122
