Rangers vs. Blue Jays Odds, Picks, Predictions: A Bet Against Jon Gray and Jose Berrios On Friday (April 8)

Rangers vs. Blue Jays Odds

Two teams that underwent roster turnover this offseason will open their 2022 seasons against the other when the Texas Rangers travel to Toronto to face the Blue Jays. Jon Gray and Jose Berrios — two pitchers who weren't on the Opening Day roster for either team last season — will get the ball.

Where do we go in this one? Let's take a closer look.

Texas Rangers

If you're just waking up from a months-long slumber underneath a rock, allow me to fill you in on what's been up with the Texas Rangers.

They spent money like it was going out of style this offseason, paying Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Gray among others. Their lineup now features legitimate bats with Mitch Garver, Nathaniel Lowe and Brad Miller following Semien and Seager in the order. Then there's Adolis Garcia, who did well enough in the first half of last year to make the All-Star team.

FanGraphs' Steamer projects there should be eight hitters who see regular at-bats who will be at a 100 wRC+ or better, and while that seems far-fetched, it's easy to buy into at least five of these guys being legitimate hitters.

While the bolstered offense is intriguing, the addition of Gray is arguably more intriguing.

Best known for his volatility, the former Rockies righty actually pitched pretty well last season despite a 4.59 ERA, posting a 3.95 expected ERA and a solid 24.4% strikeout rate. Walks hurt Gray, and it was most of the reason he was victimized later in the season.

Toronto Blue Jays

Most of the Blue Jays lineup is the same, with the exception of Matt Chapman, who was acquired via an offseason trade with the A's. There's also George Springer, who played just 78 games in his first season with the Blue Jays last year and could certainly impact this team with a full season.

At any rate, it's really easy to see why this team is a World Series favorite. Everywhere you look up and down the order, there's trouble, and adding a full season of Springer and Chapman on top of an offense that already produced a 112 wRC+ last season — the second-best in baseball — is truly terrifying.

Speaking of terrifying, paying any sort of price for Berrios at the trade deadline last season could ultimately prove to be a poor move for the Blue Jays. Sure, he hasn't exactly been terrible in any one of his seasons, but his expected ERA has sat above four runs in each of the last three seasons and over the last two he's allowed hard-hit balls at nearly a 40% clip.

The flamethrower is now 27 years old, and is unlikely to drastically improve at this age. He is who he is: A guy who is very capable of spinning a gem, but almost equally as capable of getting yanked in the fifth.

Rangers-Blue Jays Pick

It does seem Berrios got a bit lucky last year based on his contact profile, and against a Rangers team with solid projections, it could be a bit tricky on Friday. On the other hand, while Gray did seem to get unlucky, he hardly pitched well by his expected metrics. No longer calling Coors Field his home will help, but facing a championship-caliber offense will not.

I will back two good offenses against pitchers who have been erratic over their careers. Give me the over.

Pick: Over 9 (-110)

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