Rays vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Offenses Should Show Out at Camden Yards (Thursday, July 28)

Rays vs. Orioles Odds

Even when the Baltimore Orioles lose, they find a way to make it exciting and fun. After a game-tying home run in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Orioles fell in extra innings Wednesday, but will look take three of four from Tampa Bay on Thursday afternoon.

Since June 11, the Orioles have the best record in the AL East at 25-14. They sit with a .500 record and above the Red Sox in the divisional standings. Tampa Bay sits just four games ahead of Baltimore and the Rays are currently holding onto the third and final wild-card spot in the American League.

Few teams have been hit harder by the injury bug than the Rays. They currently have a club-record 17 players on the injured list. The team just announced Mike Zunino and Kevin Kiermaier are out for the season, joining Andrew Kittredge and likely Tyler Glasnow.

They are also currently without Nick Anderson, JT Chargois, J.P. Feyereisen, Manuel Margot, Shane Baz, Josh Fleming, Wander Franco, Jalen Beeks, Matt Wisler, Harold Ramirez and Francisco Mejia.

If the Seattle Mariners were the league leaders in Fun Differential last season, Baltimore is probably leading the league this year. But do the O's have the advantage on Thursday afternoon?

Rays' Yarbrough Has Struggled

Once a highly touted prospect, Ryan Yarbrough has been optioned to Triple-A twice this season and has been horrible during his big league appearances. He is 0-5 with a 5.61 ERA in 10 appearances this season.

In seven starts, he has been even worse, sitting with a 5.70 ERA. He still doesn’t allow hard contact but his strikeout rate has plummeted from over 20% early in his career to just 13.3% this season. His main pitch is a cutter that has been smoked for a .487 wOBA this year.

Tampa Bay’s offense was terrific last year but has regressed a bit this season. They rank just 24th in wOBA and 14^th in wRC+ this year. Superstar Franco signed a big ticket this offseason and now has a wRC+ of just 103 while sitting on the injured list. Reigning rookie of the year Randy Arozarena isn’t much better at just 115.

Orioles' Offense Has Been Hot

Veteran Jordan Lyles is on his sixth team in six years and has pretty much always been a below average pitcher for a guy who has managed 12 big league seasons. He has a 5.17 career ERA over 309 big league appearances.

This season, he has posted a 6-8 record with a 4.79 ERA and 5.12 xERA and ranks in the bottom 15% of the league in most stats. He has been much better at home, pitching to a 3.00 ERA at Camden Yards, which has become a very pitcher friendly ballpark.

Since the start of June, the Baltimore offense has turned things on and climbed to 13th in the league in wOBA and 15th in wRC+.  Baseball’s number one prospect, Adley Rutschman, has led the Orioles with a .378 wOBA and 146 wRC+ over the last month.

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Rays-Orioles Pick

It has been scary to back an over at Camden Yards with the new wall dimensions, but the over is actually 24-24 in Baltimore home games this season.

Over the last 10 games, these two teams have gone a combined 14-5-1 to the over and has hit in four of the last five games against each other.

Tampa Bay has shelled Lyles twice already this season, tagging him for 11 runs in just seven innings. Both of these pitchers are in the bottom 15% of the league in xERA and xwOBA allowed.

Both offenses are playing well over the last month and the weather is expected to be humid with wind blowing out.

Pick: Over 9 (-115)