Rays vs Twins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, September 13
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Rays vs. Twins Odds
The Minnesota Twins have been slugging the ball of late. However, they will now have to do enough offensively to survive a start with Dallas Keuchel on the mound against one of the best teams in baseball in the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays put forth Taj Bradley, who has showed some impressive stuff, but outside of strikeouts, he is still permitting baserunners and therefore, runs.
With two solid offenses and shaky starting pitching, let's dive in and find a best bet for Rays vs. Twins.
Taj Bradley's 29.2% strikeout rate is impressive, but his walk rate is 8.7% has given him some problems and is a root cause for his 5.44 ERA.
While his xERA of 4.42 points to some room for positive regression, when he's not striking out or walking hitters, he's giving up too much hard contact. His hard-hit rate is 47.4%, his average exit velocity allowed is 91.4 mph and his barrel rate is north of 10%.
Offensively, the Rays have been right around league-average against left-handed pitching in the last two weeks with a 95 wRC+, but over a longer haul they've been impressive against southpaws as a while. Over the last month, they own a 123 wRC+ with a 10.5% walk rate and 22.1% strikeout rate against lefties.
They also have seven active bats above a .325 xwOBA with two more above .300. This is a good lineup, top-to-bottom.
The Rays' bullpen was a sore spot for a good chunk of the season, but they've been stellar of late with a 2.95 xFIP in the last two weeks. They have only two arms over a 4.00 xFIP in that time.
Keuchel looks like himself overall since joining the Minnesota rotation. His 4.79 ERA is better than you might expect, however, and indeed the advanced numbers ring out as his xERA is 5.62.
He has never really allowed a lot of hard contact and that's been his saving grace in this small sample size, as his average exit velocity is 85.9 mph, his barrel rate of 6.8% and his hard-hit rate is 30.7%. The problem for Keuchel is that he walks too many batters and doesn't miss hardly any bats, with a walk rate of 8% and a strikeout rate of 12%.
Offensively, the Twins have feasted off of right-handed pitching. In the last month, they have a 126 wRC+, 12.3% walk rate, 26.1% strikeout rate and .815 OPS against righties. That should help them knock Bradley out of the game early, especially since they can draw walks.
Despite a litany of injuries, they still have eight active batters above a .330 xwOBA off of righties in the last month with two others above .300.
The Twins have struggled immensely in relief over the last two weeks with a 4.77 xFIP. On the other hand, they still have six arms below the 4.00 mark, so this is not as large as an issue as the collective numbers may tell.
Rays vs. Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Rays and Twins have potent lineups and should crush both of these weak starters in this game. Yes, both bullpens have enough artillery to hold the opponent in check, but the lineups are strong enough to get the job done.
Take the over in this game and expect that both starters to be gone before the end of the fifth inning, furthering a strain on the relief corps.
Bet this over to 10 and -110 or better.
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