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Red Sox vs. Angels MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Boston Bats in Los Angeles (Wednesday, June 8)

Red Sox vs. Angels MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Boston Bats in Los Angeles (Wednesday, June 8) article feature image
Credit:

Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: J.D. Martinez.

  • The Angels host the Red Sox as underdogs on Wednesday night.
  • With both teams trending in opposite directions and Mike Trout possibly out, what's the best way to play this matchup?
  • Nick Martin breaks down the game and shares his best bet below.

Red Sox vs. Angels Odds

Red Sox Odds -165
Angels Odds +140
Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110)
Time 9:38 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Tuesday’s contest was another disastrous one for the Angels and their fans. Not only did Los Angeles drop a club record 13th consecutive contest, but Mike Trout also exited the game due to groin tightness.

Wednesday’s contest won’t get any easier for the slumping Halos when the Red Sox hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi as they look for the series sweep.

Eovaldi will be opposed by lefty Reid Detmers, who has pitched to an ERA of 4.20 in 45 innings this season.

The Angels may be due for a win, but will they break through in this tough matchup?

Eovaldi and the Red Sox Hope to Stay Hot

Over the past month of play, the surging Red Sox have been the most productive offensive unit in baseball, and it really hasn’t been very close. Boston has kept the hot bats rolling so far in Anaheim, managing 21 hits from a ton of hard contact in the opening two games of this series.

The Red Sox have hit to the league’s best wRC++ at 139 and highest wOBA at .365 in 1117 PA’s since May 8. They also have strong splits in essentially every relevant category during that time.

Over the entire season, the Red Sox have also hit far more effectively against left-handed pitching as well, playing to a 118 wRC+ with a .336 wOBA, which is good news for them against the lefty Detmers on Wednesday.

The Red Sox have hit both fastballs and curveballs very effectively, which they should see frequently against Detmers.

The Red Sox could be missing a significant bat Wednesday, however, as they will likely be without Xander Bogaerts, who exited Tuesday’s game with shoulder tightness.

Boston’s regular bullpen pieces have not pitched a single inning over the last three days, not that a rested pen would be overly relevant with Eovaldi starting.

Over Eovaldi’s last three starts he has been brilliant, pitching to an ERA of 1.70 in 21 and 1/3 innings. His Strikeout Rate has sky-rocketed to 30.9% in those contests, with a WHIP of just 0.83.

Eovaldi has been dominant over his last four outings on the road in particular, as he has managed an era of just 1.72 over 26 innings. Altogether, his Strikeout Rate and Walk Rates have actually improved in 2022 compared to last season, at 26% and 3.9% respectively.

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Can Detmers and the Angels Bounce Back?

Trout’s injury does not seem to be a significant one, which is important news for a Los Angeles team that can’t afford to fall much more in the standings.

Over the last month, Los Angeles has continued to hit the ball relatively effectively while playing without some key pieces in the lineup, but the greatest cause for concern has been club’s alarmingly poor pitching.

The bullpen has begun to collapse yet again and holds a 26th-ranked ERA of 6.30 over the last two weeks.

The Angels will therefore need Detmers at closer to his best, rather than the form we have often seen this season. The former 10th overall pick offers a lot of upside as we saw in his May 10th no-hitter.

Over his last five starts, Detmers has pitched to a 3.74 ERA, which is a positive step in the right direction, although excluding the no-no, the numbers are still quite concerning.

Detmers sits with well below-average marks in most key metrics and has pitched to a QOPA of 4.41. Boston should prove to be a tough matchup for Detmers, and we saw that when the Red Sox tagged him for three earned runs over four innings on May 4th.

Red Sox-Angels Pick

Boston’s red-hot offense should match up well with Detmers and will likely manage a strong output in the opening half of this contest.

Therefore, playing the Red Sox to go over their first five innings run total of 2.5 at +105 is my favorite play on this contest, and I see value on that down to a price of -110.

I do believe that even without Trout, this Angels offense is currently a little undervalued, and I’m not going to discount the chances they find some runs in the first handful of innings themselves.

Consequently, I see more value backing just the Red Sox team total in the first 5 innings than Boston -0.5, and I also project some value backing the Red Sox game total to go over 4.5 at -110.

Pick: Boston Red Sox Team Total First 5 Innings Over 2.5 +105 | Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5 -110

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