Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Picks: Why to Bet Boston Early in Monday’s Game

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds

The struggling Boston Red Sox continue their road trip on Monday night as they head to Toronto to take on their American League East foe Blue Jays. Toronto won the first series between these two, in Boston.

The Red Sox enter fresh off a series loss against the Tampa Bay Rays, while the Blue Jays took two out of three from the Houston Astros. Both teams will send familiar faces to the mound as Nathan Eovaldi takes on Jose Berrios.

Can the Blue Jays continue to surge atop of the division as they return to Rogers Centre, or will the Red Sox bounce back with a win behind their ace?

Red Sox's Eovaldi Should See Home Run Regression

The Red Sox turn to their ace Eovaldi, who has been terrific in just about every aspect outside of limiting the long ball.

Over his first three starts of the season, Eovaldi has given up five home runs in 14 2/3 innings, and it's been the only time opponents have been able to score off the right-hander. That's a number that should positively regress in the coming starts, as his HR/9 sits just under one.

Eovaldi's last outing came against these Blue Jays, where he pitched 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball on seven hits. The Red Sox took home a 2-1 win in the rubber match despite generating just three hits.

While Eovaldi has struggled to open the season, there's no reason to be worried with the 32-year-old. His velocity remains the same, his curveball has been dominant in the early going — .085 xBA — and he's still generating swings and misses.

His 2.64 xFIP shows that positive regression is on the horizon for Eovaldi, who will not be giving up over three home runs per nine innings. Especially with no underlying concerns to health or velocity.

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Blue Jays Need Berrios To Be Better

In his first year with the Blue Jays, Berrios' outings have been a rollercoaster, but his best start of the season came last week against these Red Sox.

Berrios limited Boston to just one run in a 6-1 victory, despite giving up eight hits over six innings. The Red Sox finished that game 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position.

But over his three starts, Berrios has given up a .301 xBA, and his xERA of 7.70 ranks in the bottom six percent of all pitchers. He has struggled to limit hard contact and hasn't been generating as many swings and misses as years prior.

And all of this has come with him leaving 81.7 percent of batters on base, nearly 10 percent higher than his career averages.

The problem early on for Berrios has been his trouble with his fastball and sinker, with xBA's of .371 and .425, respectively. While his curveball has been effective (.147 xBA), hitters have keyed in on his hard stuff and taken advantage.

Berrios was a negative regression candidate in 2021, when his xERA sat over a half-run higher than his actual, and I expect his struggles to continue in the interim.

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Red Sox-Blue Jays Pick

This is the perfect spot to back Eovaldi and the Red Sox against a struggling Berrios. Both pitchers have been hit hard in the early going, but Berrios’ xERA of 7.70 is a huge cause for concern. 

He has been long overdue for a shift in negative regression, and got quite fortunate his last outing against the Red Sox, who hit the ball hard yet came up unsuccessful with runners in scoring position. 

On the other side, Eovaldi’s home run issues are unsustainable and I think we see him limit hard contact tonight. There’s always a scare when facing Vlad Guerrero Jr., but Bo Bichette has struggled in the early going and the rest of the Blue Jays lineup hasn’t been particularly impressive when it comes to wRC+. 

While I don’t trust Boston’s bullpen in this matchup, I think the Red Sox have a clear edge on the mound tonight in Toronto. They should be able to get to Berrios early and I’m looking to back the Red Sox on the F5 ML. 

Back Boston and Eovaldi in the first half of this AL East bout at the Rogers Centre on Monday night. 

Pick: Red Sox F5 ML +110 (to -105)