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Red Sox vs. White Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Total With Giolito Starting (Wednesday, May 25)

Red Sox vs. White Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Total With Giolito Starting (Wednesday, May 25) article feature image
Credit:

Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Giolito.

  • The Red Sox are underdogs against Lucas Giolito and the White Sox tonight.
  • Rich Hill will start for Boston against a Chicago lineup that feasts on left-handed pitching.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and makes his betting picks below.

Red Sox vs. White Sox Odds

Red Sox Odds +145
White Sox Odds -175
Over/Under 7.5 (-110 / -110)
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After a comically lopsided win over the White Sox on Tuesday night, the Red Sox will look to continue their hot play with a second game against Chicago on Wednesday. Can the White Sox recover from this big loss?

Let’s take a look at where the value lies here.

Boston’s Lineup Is MLB’s Hottest

The Red Sox scored 16 runs on Tuesday in what was a ridiculously lopsided game. Everyone — even the slumping Enrique Hernandez — got in on the fun as Boston recorded 19 hits.

Now, this win certainly skews the numbers a little bit for Boston, but even so it is the top offense in baseball over the last two weeks judging by wRC+, beating out even the Astros. For the season now, the Red Sox rank second in barrel rate and have certainly made more than enough quality contact to instill some belief in this kind of form.

The most impressive thing about this run, though, could be the fact that the Red Sox have struck out in just 19.8% of plate appearances, an elite number. Boston had previously struggled with punchouts for most of the first couple of months.

Hurting the Red Sox here will be the fact that Rich Hill is getting ready to start. He’s done well enough here to pitch to a 3.90 ERA, but he’s nowhere near the level he was at even just a few years ago. The lefty has struck out just 18.3% of batters he’s faced and has been worse than the league average with a hard-hit rate of 36.2%.

Chicago’s Lineup Still Mashing vs. Lefties

The White Sox have the right-handed power bats to be a serious issue for Hill. They currently sit second with a 126 wRC+ against southpaws and that’s very unsurprising considering the likes of Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu and Luis Robert feast on lefties consistently.

Chicago also makes a good deal of quality contact. It is seventh in barrels per plate appearance and third in hard-hit balls per swing. Unless you are missing bats, you are going to be up against it when it comes to getting these guys out. Though the White Sox have yet to produce the eye-popping numbers we’re expecting, the difference between their wOBA and xwOBA is the second-biggest in the league.

Lucas Giolito has been a flawed pitcher this year. He’s always given up a good amount of hard-hit balls, but his barrel rate has never reached double digits like it has this year with a mark of 11.1%. Like many of the great pitchers these days, it doesn’t matter that he allows some occasional rockets with an elite strikeout rate (34.6%).

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Red Sox-White Sox Pick

Giolito is pretty strikeout dependent and while that isn’t really a bad thing it might give the Red Sox a way into this match. Boston is hardly striking out these days and putting a bat on everything, and those skills will go a long way against Giolito.

On the other hand, I really hate this matchup for Rich Hill who isn’t missing many bats. I think together, these two teams will combine for another night of high-scoring baseball.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)

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