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Rockies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Colorado to Deliver Upset (Friday, Aug. 5)

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Colorado to Deliver Upset (Friday, Aug. 5) article feature image
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Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images. Pictured: Colorado Rockies starting pitcher German Marquez.

  • The Colorado Rockies skip town Friday for a clash with the Arizona Diamondbacks on another solid Major League Baseball slate.
  • The Rockies send Germán Márquez to the mound, with the hope they can shine as moneyline underdogs.
  • Analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup below and details why he's backing Colorado to triumph.

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Rockies Odds +110
Diamondbacks Odds -135
Over/Under 8 (-120/+100)
Time 9:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Colorado Rockies head to Chase Field on Friday for an NL West matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks, with each side hoping to avoid a last-place finish in their division.

Arizona, which has been tormented in contests inside of its tough division playing to a 15-27 record altogether, sends Madison Bumgarner to the mound and hope it fares better against the NL West’s softest opponent.

Germán Márquez starts for Colorado and will likely be excited to see a game away from Coors Field against a softer Arizona side.

Both of these clubs might look a little more formidable in another division, but who will get the best of the head-to-head matchup? Let’s take a look.

Colorado Rockies

It’s no secret that pitching inside the confines of Coors Field is a tall order for any starting pitcher, and the home-and-road splits offered from Márquez are a perfect testament to that belief.

Germán Márquez has been steady away from Coors, with a 4.20 ERA and 1.28 WHIP throughout 49 1/3 innings so far this season, compared to an alarming ERA of 6.11 at Coors Field. Márquez has also trended into better form of late altogether, with a 3.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five outings in the month of July.

Márquez also features a solid QOPA of 4.33 and xFIP of 3.95, which suggest that he’s more effective than his overall results show.

Offensively, the Rockies have been far more effective against left-handed pitching and sit closer to the middle of the pack looking toward splits against left-handed pitchers.

Colorado has struck out just 19.1% of the time versus lefties, with a 101 wRC+ and a .333 woba this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks

With how the Rockies have hit left-handed pitching, Bumgarner certainly offers a strong target, especially considering he holds an xERA of 4.97, which is over a full run greater than his actual mark.

Bumgarner’s xwoba has slowly climbed as the season has moved along and now sits at a mark of .344 on the season.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% against Bumgarner on the season, which is the lowest mark amongst qualified starters.

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Rockies-Diamondbacks Pick

Bumgarner is offering far less of an edge over German Márquez than his surface level stats might suggest, so it’s reasonable to say the starting pitching matchup projects to be closer to a wash considering what we should expect from the Arizona starter moving forward.

With how Colorado has hit left-handed pitching, it’s realistic to say the club holds an edge at the plate. So, therefore I think we certainly have some value backing the Rockies to win this contest as live underdogs.

I see strong value with Colorado at +110 in this matchup, and would play it down to a price of +100 to take the series opener.

Pick: Colorado ML (+110 | Play to +100)

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