Rockies vs. Padres PRO Report: Sharp Action, Betting Systems Reveal Moneyline Value (Wednesday, Sept. 9)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado
- The Padres are favored over the Rockies tonight, which isn't all that unexpected.
- However, as our MLB PRO Report details, big bets from sharps have been landing on the road underdogs.
- Read on for Danny Donahue's MLB betting markets analysis, including why our PRO System suggests that Colorado is in a strong situational spot.
There was never much question as to which team would be favored in this NL West matchup. The Padres are winners of their last three, and are sporting the second-best run differential in the majors (behind only the division-leading Dodgers). The Rockies, meanwhile, continue to fall off the cliff that was built by their 11-3 start — they’re now 9-18 since and have lost two in a row.
Instead, the question was by how much the Padres would be favored. And based on how this line has moved since its opening number of -190, it appears that opener was a bit too high.
Our brand new PRO Report helps explain the reason for the move.
Note: Report as of 1:40 p.m. ET.
Rockies vs. Padres Odds, PRO Report
The Padres are now down to -175 after opening at -190, but not because bettors are lining up to bet the Rockies.
Instead, it’s been big bets from sharp bettors moving this line, and according to our PRO betting systems, there’s good reason to like Colorado tonight.
PRO Report angle: Rockies [Bet Now in Colorado!]
Any time the line moves toward a side as unpopular as the Rockies are tonight (all else equal surrounding the game), there’s a good chance that sharps are among those on that unpopular side. And Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed that to be the case.
Two signals — which track and record instances of market-movement caused by sharp activity — have been triggered on the Rockies since this line opened.
While the Rockies are drawing just 30% of bettors, they aren’t lacking so much in terms of actual money hitting this line. Their minority backing has accounted for just about half (49%) of the loot, meaning they’re attracting much bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps.
From a situational standpoint, everything may seem to be lining up against the Rockies tonight. But our PRO System, Contrarian Betting Against Good Teams, actually shows that unpopular teams on short losing streaks can be quite profitable when they meet up with strong opponents.
The system has won at just a 42% clip (because it almost always targets underdogs), but has a solid 12% return on investment.