MLB Odds & Picks for Rockies vs. Phillies: Will Philadelphia Step Up At the Plate?
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber (left) and Nick Castellanos (right).
- The Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies meet at Citizen Bank Park on Tuesday night.
- The Phillies have struggled to start the season, but this lineup should take a step forward at some point.
- Nick Martin thinks we'll see a glimpse of that tonight and explains why with his top bet below.
Rockies vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||6:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After a frustrating night at the plate in Sunday’s 1-0 loss to the Brewers, Philadelphia’s bats exploded in the opener of this four-game set for an 8-2 victory Monday.
It was the kind of potent offensive day that we have not seen as often as expected from this Phillies’ order, which has been a main cause of their disappointing 7-10 start.
Tuesday’s contest will offer a rematch of the starting pitching matchup seen between Zach Eflin and German Marquez last Wednesday — a game that ended in a 9-6 win for the Phillies.
Will we see a different result this time around now at Citizens Bank Park?
Is Marquez a Problem?
Colorado has surged to a 10-6 record out of the gates and has produced more effectively than expected at the plate with a 108 wRC+ and a .340 wOBA.
The xwOBA isn’t too far behind at .332, but even still, it’s hard for me to continue to believe this order will be dangerous top-to-bottom over a longer period of games.
Marquez did not appear likely to be a dominant starter by any means this season after his poor finish to last year’s campaign, and in the early going, he has not offered much reason to look for different results moving forward.
The Colorado starter has seen most of his numbers tank over the last 250 plate appearances, and it seems that teams may have figured out some ways to get to his stuff at the plate.
He pitched to a 4.09 xERA throughout all of 2021 but saw that mark rise in his final 10 starts. To start 2022, he has pitched to a high 5.22 xERA and has been hit hard 47.5% of the time.
Through three 2022 starts, Marquez has pitched to a 4.47 QOPA.
Philadelphia touched him up Wednesday for eight hits and three home runs, and I believe that he would still struggle with the heart of the Phillies’ order in a larger sample size.
Phillies Set to Produce Offensively
A lot has been made about the Phillies’ struggles to start this young season even at the plate, where they had produced just the 15th-best runs scored ranking entering Monday’s contest against the Rockies.
The noise seemed to all come to a head with Kyle Schwarber’s very reasonable outburst Sunday night, but the team responded with the perfect answer in Monday’s contest, blowing the Rockies up in the 8-2 win.
Offensively, the Phillies do hold a number of positive signs that say better results are on the horizon. We also know this lineup simply holds the power to produce more effectively.
Philadelphia owns the second-best xBA of .272, with the seventh-best xwOBA of .344.
This lineup has simply crushed Marquez historically, with only Didi Gregorious and Rhys Hoskins holding anything but excellent numbers in previous at-bats.
It’s possible J.T. Realmuto will finally have an off day Tuesday, which will be something to watch.
Zach Eflin will draw the start, and similar to the rest of the team, probably feels this season has been a disappointment so far. He boasts an 0-1 record and a 4.50 ERA in 13.2 innings pitched.
Eflin has pitched far better than his actual ERA again this season, as his xERA sits at 2.90 after managing a strong xERA of 3.90 last season. The stuff has been quite strong so far for Eflin, as evidenced by his 5.04 QOPA.
My expectation is that we will see the Phillies’ lineup stay hot Tuesday and build on Monday’s emphatic win.
Eflin projects to be a solid regression candidate moving forward and could quite possibly find some success Tuesday against a Rockies’ order that’s due to come back to earth a bit itself.
Should he manage a quality start, there’s a great chance he earns the win, as I believe we will see the Phillies offer some run support against Marquez and the Rockies’ pen.
I’m still convinced we will see this Phillies lineup do a lot of damage at Citizens Bank Park this season, and I like looking for them to put up some crooked numbers here.
I see an edge in backing the Phillies to cover the run line at +125 and would play that down to +115.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+125 | Play to +115)
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