The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres on August 3, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Diamondbacks are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Padres vs Diamondbacks Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-112 | Play to -120)
My Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet is on Arizona to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 9 -108o / -112u | +102 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 -108o / -112u | -112 |
- Padres vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Padres +102, Diamondbacks -112
- Padres vs Diamondbacks over/under: 9 (-108o / -112u)
- Padres vs Diamondbacks spread: Padres -1.5 (+164), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| Michael King | Stat | Brandon Pfaadt |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L | 5-1 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.38 / 4.58 | ERA / xERA | 4 / 4.02 |
| 4.12 / 4.42 | FIP / xFIP | 4.22 / 4.53 |
| 11.5 | K-BB% | 9.1 |
| 43.4 | GB% | 48.7 |
| .251 | BABIP | .283 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
It's trade deadline day, which is always incredibly difficult to handicap as we're never quite sure who's going to be on the field. Michael King was scratched on Sunday, almost certainly because of ongoing trade negotiations, so there's a real chance he never makes his scheduled start for the Padres on Monday.
Assuming he does, however, it will come at a good time as the right-hander has bounced right back following two shaky months. King finished July with a 2.79 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, bringing back his strikeout numbers a bit and limiting opponents to just 22 hits in 29 frames.
It seems the ground-ball experiment is over for the veteran, as he pitched to a whopping 36.3% fly-ball rate in July. That's up around 13 points from his previous average and almost 14 points from June — and it's the prime reason he's returned to his former profile. He's started to gun for strikeouts once again, and even though they haven't been there in bunches, he's allowing fewer hits and expected hits on account of the probabilities falling his way.
San Diego is a great park to pitch to contact in the air, as is Arizona, and while his outfield has left a lot to be desired defensively, the issue has really stemmed from Fernando Tatis Jr. in right. King allows most of his contact in the air to go to center, where the fence is furthest and his best defender resides, so as long as the fly balls continue, we shouldn't expect anything less than adequate production.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
Brandon Pfaadt probably won't be a man on the move, as the Diamondbacks continue to seek rotation help. He's certainly done his part to assist, going 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA last month, and as he's been known to do time and time again, he's simply leveled up after he accepted another challenge to improve from Arizona.
Since coming back from his demotion to the bullpen, the right-hander has showcased great control — something he had none of early in the year as a starter — and he's also allowed just one home run, which came in his first start in two months. His ground-ball rate remains very high at over 49%, and his defense has proven to be a huge help in ranking fifth in Outs Above Average.
Pfaadt has seemed to leave strikeouts completely by the wayside, with his punchout rate falling under 15% since May, but the friendly contact — a .239 xBA in July and season-best .325 xSLG — has made it a non-issue. Pfaadt is simply getting outs any way he can, and he's limiting the pressure situations with a low walk rate.
Of course, for every team looking at improving the rotation, there is an offense begging for help. There's no exception here, with the Diamondbacks ranking fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, headlined by a .271 batting average and a low 17% strikeout rate. Arizona hasn't hit for much power with a .159 ISO, but it has walked an encouraging 9.8% of the time.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
The matchup here for Pfaadt really couldn't be any better. The Padres rank third-worst in OPS against ground-ball pitchers and 10th against fly-ballers, and over the last two weeks their success has been driven entirely by a .288 average and a 9.7% walk rate. San Diego is hoping to just get on base all night long and wait for the timely knock, but that's going to play right into Pfaadt's hands as something of a contact expert.
King, on the other hand, will receive a park upgrade but won't have much joy in facing a Diamondbacks team that prefers to hit fly-ballers, and one which also doesn't strike out much. King's control should be tested by a patient Arizona team, and a few walks could wind up making the inevitable hits from the home team prove costly.
Of course, we can't even be sure King will actually start this game, but in this pitching matchup I think you have to take the home side.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-112 | Play to -120)
