The San Francisco Giants host the New York Mets on April 3, 2026. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on WPIX.
The Mets are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Giants Prediction
- Mets vs Giants Pick: Under 7.5 (-115 or Better)
My Mets vs Giants best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Giants Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 7.5 -118o / -104u | -130 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -118o / -104u | +110 |
- Mets vs Giants spread: Mets -1.5 (+132), Giants +1.5 (-160)
- Mets vs Giants over/under: 7.5 (-118 / -104)
- Mets vs Giants moneyline: Mets -130, Giants +110
Mets vs Giants Kalshi Odds
Mets vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| Nolan McLean (RHP) | Stat | Tyler Mahle (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.60 / 2.99 | ERA / xERA | 4.50 / 6.41 |
| 4.35 / 2.92 | FIP / xFIP | 1.40 / 3.24 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 27.3% | K-BB% | 23.5% |
| 36.4% | GB% | 45.5% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 107 | Location+ | 128 |
Mets vs Giants MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets
The Mets stand at 3-4 on the year, a record that could be much worse given their early-season play.
The offense started ablaze with 11 runs on Opening Day, but the team has failed to score four runs in any game since, averaging just about 2 runs per game over the past 6.
There's an abundance of time for this team to figure out how to replace Pete Alonso at first base and who to rely on at third, but so far, it's no closer to an answer.
Bo Bichette's OPS is just a hair over .300, and aside from Juan Soto and Luis Robert, nobody's hitting.
Things took a darker turn in St. Louis when the team made a number of mental mistakes on the bases and in the field, and then San Francisco put the hurt on New York in a 7-2 win on Thursday.
Luckily, the Mets have Nolan McLean on the hill to stop this three-game slide.
The rookie pitched to a brilliant 2.06 ERA last season across 48 frames, and that came along with an impressive 30.3% strikeout rate and an influx of ground balls, which kept his opponents to a .226 Expected Batting Average.
So far in 2026, we've seen much of the same, with McLean striking out six over four scoreless frames in his lone spring start and eight over five innings of two-run ball versus Pittsburgh in his season debut.
The World Baseball Classic was a bit of an adventure, but McLean was able to bounce back last start and, other than one home run, pitched very well. His two walks were notable considering his roughly 9% career walk rate, but that's just nitpicking.
San Francisco Giants
Tyler Mahle is probably one of the more underrated back-end arms in the game.
He went to Texas last season, where pitchers have been known to resurrect themselves in the friendly confines of Globe Life Park's huge outfield behind one of the best defenses in the league. After healing from injury, he finished 2025 with a 2.18 ERA across 86 2/3 innings.
The underlying numbers weren't so kind to Mahle, who recorded a 4.24 Expected ERA, but this is standard practice for a Rangers pitcher. Mahle gave up a ton of fly balls and a ton of contact in general with just a 19.1% strikeout rate, but the park and defensive factors we alluded to above helped keep runners from scoring.
The righty was wise to move to San Francisco, where it's just as hard to homer. But one thing to watch is the Giants' outfield defense, which ranked dead last in Outs Above Average last season. Things should generally improve with Jung Hoo Lee moving out of center field in favor of Harrison Bader, but Heliot Ramos still stands as a liability out there.
So far, things are going well. Mahle was brilliant in spring training, pitching 10 scoreless innings with a 32.5% strikeout rate, and while he allowed two runs over four innings versus the Yankees, he did strike out five to just one walk. An increase in strikeouts would do wonders for Mahle, who was once a high strikeout arm, but after injuries and a loss of velocity, he's turned into a contact-oriented guy.
Given the lack of whiffs and chases out of the zone against the Yankees, the strikeouts are probably not going to stick, but they were in a respectable place this spring so who knows.
Mets vs Giants Picks
The Mets' offense needs some help right now, and it's certainly possible Mahle could wind up helping them.
Last season, the team ranked second among MLB lineups in OPS against fly-ball pitchers, but fifth against ground-ballers, with a 51-point difference. In a small sample this year, the Mets rank just 24th against fly-ballers — 13 spots lower than in the reverse split.
New York has hit a ton of ground balls to begin the year, ranking ninth in baseball, so that would seem to make perfect sense. The team's taken on a new identity with five new starters — six if you count Brett Baty, who is now an everyday player — so this may not be some sort of outlier.
Considering the Giants' infield defense is average at worst, and the outfield promises to be a bit better this year, I don't totally see an offensive breakout coming for the Mets on Friday.
Mahle's looked pretty good since he arrived at camp, and even if those strikeout numbers don't stick, I still believe in his ability to pitch to contact in a pitcher's paradise.
On the opposite end, we haven't talked much about the Giants' offense, but the main key for me is that they're second in ground-ball rate thus far in 2026, which would represent a pretty sharp turnaround from 2025. If they continue to hit the ball into the dirt, they're going to play right into McLean's hands, and more than that, they're striking out at a somewhat poor 24.5% clip with a 7.5% walk rate that is certainly poor.
Give me the Under here with both teams searching for power in a park that won't supply it.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115 or Better)
