MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks for Saturday: Targeting the Over on Bieber & Under on Keuchel (April 24)
Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Dallas Keuchel.
- Mike Ianniello has player prop picks for three pitchers today, including one for the epic Bieber-Cole duel in Cleveland.
- Bieber's strikeout total is set at 9.5. Is that too high or too low?
- Continue reading for Ianniello's picks on Bieber and two other pitchers from today's MLB slate.
I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Nathan Eovaldi Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|Mariners vs. Red Sox||Red Sox -205|
|Time||1:10 p.m. ET|
Eovaldi has gone under this number in two of his four starts so far. He has racked up 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings this season.
The Red Sox right-hander has a 9.13 K/9 this season, which is right around his rate for the past two seasons. For those of you who are not math experts, that means he averages about one strikeout per inning.
Eovaldi doesn’t have a true swing-and-miss pitch in his arsenal. His slider has a 47.8 Whiff% but also has allowed a .333 batting average against and .358 wOBA, the most among any of his pitches.
At Eovaldi’s typical K/9 rate he would need to pitch seven innings to hit this over. I am willing to bet he doesn’t last that long today and will stay under this number.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Shane Bieber over 9.5 Strikeouts (-105)
|Yankees vs. Indians||Yankees -117|
|Time||6:10 p.m. ET|
This number is very high. But Shane Bieber is very good. Bieber has averaged 7 1/3 innings per start this year and his strikeout totals have gone 12, 12, 11, 13.
The 2020 Cy Young Award winner had a 14.2 K/9 last season and has slightly upped it to 14.73 this season. Bieber’s curveball has a 50.8 Whiff% and his slider is up at 61.5 Whiff%.
The total for this game is set at just 6.5. Bieber will oppose the Yankees’ ace, Gerrit Cole. The last time Bieber went toe-to-toe with another elite pitcher, he and Lucas Giolito both didn’t allow a run for the first nine innings. Bieber went nine innings, allowing just three hits and striking out 11.
I think with Cole on the other side and likely going deep into this game, Bieber will also get a longer leash and these two will battle deep into the game, allowing Bieber to rack up at least 10 Ks against the struggling Yankees bats.
Dallas Keuchel Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-114)
|Rangers vs. White Sox||White Sox -175|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Dallas Keuchel is one of those pitchers whose name carries more weight than his current ability. The 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner has an ERA of 5.68 through four starts, which would be the worst of his career.
His K/9 rate has plummeted to 4.74 and his fastball velocity is down around 88 mph. At 4.74 K/9, Keuchel would essentially need to pitch a complete game to hit this over.
In his four starts this season, he has yet to pitch more than five innings, and has not had more than four strikeouts in a game. In his last start, Keuchel managed just one strikeout over five innings of work. In 11 starts last season, he struck out at least five batters just three times.
While the Rangers do have the highest K% in the league, they have been much better against left-handed pitchers. I don’t trust Keuchel to last long enough in this game to take this total over.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10