Shorter slate on the diamond today, which is typical for Thursdays.
Still, we have 3 MLB Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for April 16.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:40 PM | |
  | 3:05 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs Reds Moneyline and Over/Under Picks
By Sean Zerillo
I expect a lower-scoring matchup on Thursday afternoon in Cincinnati, as 23-year-old flamethrower Chase Burns meets a pitcher I bet on as much as anyone last season, in Landen Roupp.
Burns has struggled with his command this season (14.3% K-BB, down from 27.1%; Location+ down from 104 to 99), but his swinging-strike rate and called-strike plus whiff rate are both higher than his elite levels (15.8% and 28.6%) from last season.
Burns velocity (98.6 MPH vs. 98.8 MPH last season) also remains intact, and I'd expect him to pitch more in line with his relatively elite projections (FIP range from 2.99 to 3.72, K-BB% from 18.3% to 23.3%) going forward.
The BAT X is highest on Burns, pegging him for a 3.14 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 23.3% K-BB the rest of the way, which would place him 12th by FIP, and eighth by K-BB rate among starting pitchers. Burns might already be an Ace.
Roupp (projected FIP range 3.38 to 3.98 and K-BB from 12.1% to 13.8%) has flashed improved skills (K-BB up from 12% to 18.8%) early this season, but those numbers aren't supported by an increase in swinging-strike rate, called-strike plus whiff rate, or a significant change in pitch mix.
Still, I think both pitchers can keep a pair of below-average offenses in check (Giants 26th, 81 wRC+, and Reds 29th, 75 wRC+).
And we have learned that Patrick Bailey's defense will continue to be valuable — and neutralize scoring — even in the ABS era:
We were told pitch framing wouldn't matter in the ABS Challenge world but Patrick Bailey has already caught 40 out-of-zone pitches this season that were called strikes and unchallenged. pic.twitter.com/tpsN61gwpV
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 14, 2026
The Giants strike out less offensively, and they have the better bullpen, but Cincinnati has the better infield and outfield defense (aside from Bailey), hits for significantly more power, and they also create far more offensive value on the basepaths.
The Reds project as the best baserunning team in my model on Thursday's slate, while the Giants rank second-worst (behind only the Tigers).
Check out Zerillo's Full Opening Pitch for Thursday here:
Pick: Reds ML (-130 or Better) | Under 8 (-108 or Better)
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Rangers vs Athletics Over/Under Picks
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
In matchups between winning teams, sportsbooks often inflate totals due to perceived offensive capability, yet these teams also tend to have stronger pitching and tighter late-game execution — leading to a profitable edge on the under.
I actually like Jack Leiter. His stuff looks alright (105 Stuff+, 97.4 MPH average fastball), and he's due for plenty of positive regression after a slow start to the season (4.91 ERA, 3.03 xFIP).
I also like the Rangers' bullpen, which ranks 10th among relief staffs in fWAR.
While I don't like fading the Athletics' pitching staff, which is a mess, the Rangers have been pitiful against left-handed pitching to start the season (.523 OPS, 51 wRC+), giving Jacob Lopez a chance at a solid outing.
It's also worth mentioning that, while always a hitter-friendly park, hitting conditions won't be ideal at Sutter Health Park on Wednesday afternoon. We're expecting temperatures in the low-60s with 15 MPH winds blowing in from right field. As a result, BallParkPal projects a -7% run factor behind a -17% home run factor, a drop of 14% and 26%, respectively, from weather-neutral days (thus lowering his projected total by over 1.2 runs, all the way down to 7.5, which is particularly notable considering his projections tend to skew higher-scoring).
Want more Bet Labs systems? Download the Action Network App and get an Action PRO subscription today:
Pick: Under 9 (-122 or Better)
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Orioles vs Guardians F5 Moneyline Picks
By Matt Trollo
Progressive Field is one of five parks tied with a 94 Park Run Factor (Statcast), the lowest among all but three major league environments. While it’s not great for left-handed power (93 HR Factor), only Pittsburgh is more suppressive to right-handed power (75).
Checking several weather sources, there could be a rain disturbance. It does appear there should be a window, but I’m not a weatherman. That forecast suggests temperatures in the 60s with a light wind (< 10 mph) either out to right or more left to right during playable hours.
That does seem like an edge for the LHP, even if we factor in Baz’s potential reverse split.
Without known umpire assignments in the only series opening on Thursday, I have the current eight-run total just about spot on. Weather uncertainty is a further incentive to refrain.
I have Messick projected almost exactly at his 5.5 strikeout prop and Baz a bit lower, though a large under price (-152) on the 5.5 is action-prohibitive for me.
What remains is an average pitcher against an average offense. Baz may benefit slightly from a potential reverse platoon split against the Guardians, but it certainly gives it back in defense and potential wind favoring left-handed batters.
I firmly give the starting pitching edge to Parker Messick in this contest. Even if we don’t expect him to sustain estimators in the low threes, he’s an above-average pitcher with a conservative half-run edge on the current version of Shane Baz, who hasn’t been the Tampa Bay phenom who set the league on fire when he was first called up for a long time since Tommy John surgery derailed him.
Factor in the additional edge Messick should have against whatever Baltimore throws out there beyond Henderson, Ward, and Alonso, and I see a significant first-half edge for the Guardians.
Rain potential and lack of a true, rested bullpen edge for either side make the full game less of an attractive play.
Though I’m not aware of any books that currently offer "listed pitchers" for F5, I would list Messick if you can. The fact that he is left-handed is the most important piece to this puzzle, and you never know what havoc bad weather can wreak on pitching plans. We do not want to be backing a right-handed pitcher for any reason here.
Check out Trollo's full Orioles-Guardians preview here:
Pick: Guardians F5 ML (-125 or Better)
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