The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles on April 16, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Guardians are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Guardians Prediction
- Orioles vs Guardians Pick: Guardians F5 Moneyline (-124)
My Orioles vs Guardians best bet is on Guardians' first five innings moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Guardians Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8 -106o / -114u | +108 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8 -106o / -114u | -126 |
- Orioles vs Guardians spread: Orioles +1.5 (-205), Guardians -1.5 (+168)
- Orioles vs Guardians over/under: 8 (-106o/-114u)
- Orioles vs Guardians moneyline: Orioles +108, Guardians -126
Orioles vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Baz (BAL) | Stat | LHP Parker Messick (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 4.50/4.02 | ERA /xERA | 0.51/2.92 |
| 3.66/4.50 | FIP / xFIP | 2.93/3.37 |
| 1.56 | WHIP | 0.91 |
| 11.3% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 33.3% | GB% | 47.7% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 97 | Location+ | 107 |
Orioles vs Guardians Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
In three tries, Shane Baz has yet to post a quality start for his new team in Baltimore. Part of the reason is that he’s yet to complete six innings, despite throwing 98 and 99 pitches in his last two starts.
He has come close and his 4.50 ERA is literally the worst version of a quality start, but he’s also struggled to miss bats more than he ever has with just an 18.3 K-BB% and career low 10.2 SwStr%.
It’s a small sample size, but his SwStr% has decreased in each of his starts (12.8%, 10.2%, 8.1%).
What do the Orioles have him doing differently?
More cutters (25.1% up from 14.7% last year, the first season he threw the pitch). That makes some sense. Cutters aren’t usually swing and miss pitches and while Baz has allowed five barrels (9.8%), he also has a career best 35.3 HardHit%.
That means poor launch angles more than hard contact are likely more responsible for the 29.3% line drive rate and .380 BABIP that Baz won’t sustain, but the alterations to his arsenal and usage (also more knuckle-curves and fewer fastballs) don’t seem to be benefiting Baz yet.
He throws each of his three pitches between 25.1% and 36% of the time, and they all merit at least 50 PitchingBot grades. However, the cutter (53–57 PitchingBot overall grade) is the only pitch whose grade hasn’t declined since last season.
The caveat is that it actually has declined via Pitching+ (102 to 97), which shows all of his pitches trending downward. While both systems have him performing slightly worse overall in the early going, he remains near league average (4.26 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+).
One minor aspect that could benefit Baz in this game is his potential reverse split. Not by actual results (LHBs & RHBs separated by a single point of wOBA), but by his expected stats (LHBs .291 xwOBA, RHBs .322 xwOBA since last year). Either of his expected marks are better than his actual results in the .330s during this span.
Cleveland is a forward thinking franchise, which is why I don’t entirely trust projected lineups that they’re simply going to stack up nine LHBs here because they can. Still, the Guardians are likely to post a predominantly left-handed lineup. I don’t expect any of their plethora of switch hitters to bat from the right side.
Rotowire currently has a projected lineup entirely of LHBs. MLBstartingnine.com has just Rhys Hoskins from the right side, but we could see David Fry and/or another RHB too.
Humoring those projections though, it’s a near average lineup against RHPs with Hoskins (107 wRC+ vs since last year and a team 102 wRC+ vs RHP this year).
The Guardians are below average against all three pitches Baz throws most in terms of run value this season, but Baz’s own run value performance on the fastball has been even worse (-4 RV/100).
The cutter has been worth 2.2 RV/100 mostly on weak contact (29.4 HardHit%), but is also one of the reasons I suspect we may see Fry in this lineup. He’s been the team’s top performer against cutters since last year (2.19 wFC/C), though in a smallish sample.
The Guardians are an above average base running group without a real standout. Baz has been a neutral runner holder, while Sam Huff is projected for the Orioles against a second straight LHP. He has also been neutral in throwing runners out in a small sample.
The projected Baltimore defense is pretty awful with only Blaze Alexander (+2) above a 0 Fielding Run Value last year.
On a more positively surprising note, the Baltimore bullpen resides just inside the top third of the league with a 3.93 FIP/3.80 xFIP/3.31 SIERA showing through three weeks of play.
It has been a heavily used group with Helsley and most of their relievers throwing at least three of the last five days, but they will have had more than 24 hours to recover since their early afternoon game on Wednesday.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Breaking the general pattern of pitching discussion first, there’s something more intriguing to consider here.
With Tyler O’Neill and Ryan Mountcastle joining Adley Rutschmann on the IL this week, the projected Baltimore lineup against LHP reads Gunnar Henderson, Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso followed by guys only the most knowledgeable baseball fans would likely know.
Coby Mayo is a bit of a prospect or at least was, but Johnathan Rodriguez batting cleanup (Rotowire). Weston Wilson, Jeremiah Jackson, Sam Huff and Blaze Alexander?
The stunning thing is that all but Wilson have at least a 105 wRC+ against LHP since last season, but none with much more than around 50-60 plate appearances over that span.
We’re also talking about a projected lineup with an average 29.8 K% against southpaws last year with Henderson’s 24.7% mark the lowest among the nine.
The Orioles are also facing a pretty good pitcher. I’d go out on a limb and say he may be Cleveland’s best by the end of the year.
In 10 major league starts (57.1 IP), Parker Messick has an 18.6 K-BB% and 47.7 GB%, while allowing just 4.8% Barrels/BBE (one in three starts this year) with a 29.5 HardHit%.
That’s a 3.46 SIERA and 3.02 xERA.
Messick has a 2.04 major league ERA with a .323 BABIP. He won’t sustain the 90.2 LOB%, but has not posted a K-BB below 17.5% at any level of professional play and is above a 20 K-BB% in the high minors (AA & AAA).
Throwing six pitches, none more than 33% of the time this year, Messick keeps them guessing with above average pitch modeling metrics on every one of those pitches except the cutter (41 PitchingBot overall grade), his least used offering (6% this year), and it still has an above average Pitching+ mark (112).
Matching up pitch frequencies and run values against those of the projected Baltimore lineup leaves Messick in great shape.
Admittedly, most of that is due to his own spectacular performance and small opposing sample sizes, but if he refrains from throwing Henderson fastballs, I don’t see any real Baltimore edges.
Henderson is also the only net positive base runner in this projected lineup (+7 Base Running Runs), though that’s enough to get the entire group to average or a 0 BRR.
A Messick/Naylor battery would be above average at stopping the stolen base. Austin Hedges was more neutral against runners last year. He adds additional defensive value for what he takes away offensively if he’s in the lineup though.
The Guardians should be able to boast a strong defensive group, though alongside Kwan (+12 FRV) and Ramirez (+6), some of that depends on whether Daniel Schneemann (+8) is among the starting nine. The remaining projected starters are around neutral.
The Cleveland relief corps is just one spot below the Orioles with a 4.39 FIP/3.96 xFIP/3.31 SIERA combination. As you might suspect from those numbers, they’ve allowed the fourth most home runs (11) among major league bullpens, with eight different pitchers allowing at least one and none more than two.
Brogdon and Festa took the brunt of the workload and beating from St Louis on Wednesday, after Cade Smith Eric Sabrowski and Tim Herrin each pitched two days in a row. That leaves them in a bit better shape on Thursday with the added bonus of getting Hunter Gaddis back from the IL this week.
Orioles vs Guardians Picks
Progressive Field is one of five parks tied with a 94 Park Run Factor (Statcast), lower than all except three major league environments. While it’s not great for left-handed power (93 HR Factor) only Pittsburgh is more suppressive to right-handed power (75).
Checking a number of weather sources, there could be some rain disturbance. It does appear there should be a window, but I’m not a weatherman. That forecast suggests temperatures in the 60s with a light wind (< 10 mph) either out to right or more left to right during playable hours.
That does seem like an edge for the LHP, even if we factor in Baz’s potential reverse split.
Without known umpire assignments in the only series opening on Thursday, I have the current eight run total just about spot on. Weather uncertainty is further incentive to refrain.
I have Messick projected almost exactly at his 5.5 strikeout prop and Baz a bit lower, though a large under price (-152) on the 5.5 is action prohibitive for me.
What remains is an average pitcher against an average offense. Baz may benefit slightly from a potential reverse platoon split against the Guardians, but certainly gives It back in defense and potential wind favoring LHBs.
I firmly give the starting pitching edge to Parker Messick in this contest. Even if we don’t expect him to sustain estimators in the low threes, he’s an above average pitcher with a conservative half run edge on the current version of Baz, who hasn’t been the Tampa Bay phenom who set the league on fire when he was first called up for a long time since Tommy John surgery derailed him.
Factor in the additional edge Messick should have against whatever Baltimore throws out there beyond Henderson, Ward and Alonso and I see a significant F5 edge for the Guardians.
Rain potential and lack of a true, rested bullpen edge for either side make the full game less of an attractive play.
Though I’m not aware of any books which currently offer "listed pitchers" for F5s, I would list Messick if you are able to do so. The fact that he is left-handed is the most important piece to this puzzle, and you never know what havoc bad weather can wreak on pitching plans. We do not want to be backing a RHP for any reason here.
I’ve seen some numbers as low as -112 or -113 as of late Wednesday night, though FanDuel is up at 124, which is just about the worst price I would take.
Pick: Guardians F5 Moneyline (-124)
