MLB PrizePicks Plays: 5 Props for Saturday, Including Manny Machado & Kole Calhoun
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Kole Calhoun (Rangers)
- Our expert, Tony Sartori, is targeting two games and five props on PrizePicks on Saturday in MLB.
- The first game features fading three Padres players, including two hitters.
- The second game includes fading two Rangers hitters against the Athletics.
Saturday’s MLB slate features 16 games, which means there’s plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Saturday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, July 23
Blake Snell Pitcher Fantasy Score Under 30.5
We have the second matchup of this three-game series, as the NL East’s New York Mets host the NL West’s San Diego Padres. After dropping the first game of this series, I expect the Mets to rebound and grab a victory, as they’re slated to go against left-hander Blake Snell.
Through 10 starts this season, Snell is 1-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Snell enters this game in particularly poor form, as he continues to get roughed up on the mound.
Over his last five starts, Snell is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Snell has lost virtually all of his command, which should be a big problem against a good Mets offense.
Over his last two starts against the Mets, Snell is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and 2.25 WHIP.
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Runs + RBIs
We’re also fading a few San Diego hitters in this matchup, as they’re slated to go against right-hander Chris Bassitt. Through 17 starts this season, Bassitt is 7-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
Bassitt’s metrics are strong this year, as he boasts a .282 xwOBA, .215 xBA and .359 xSLG.
We’ve seen these strong metrics translate into brilliant starts recently for Bassitt. Over his last five starts, Bassitt is 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
The first San Diego hitter we’re fading is Manny Machado.
There’s no denying Machado’s excellence, however, he hasn’t been in his best former recently, as he’s gone under this total in 11 of his last 17 games (65%). Through nine career plate appearances against Bassitt, Machado possesses a mere .172 xBA, .188 xSLG and .160 xwOBA.
Jake Cronenworth Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
The other hitter we’re fading in this matchup is Jake Cronenworth. While it’s an extremely small sample size, Cronenworth possesses a mere .200 xBA, .257 xSLG and .200 xwOBA through three career plate appearances against Bassitt.
Additionally, Cronenworth may face some big regression in this second half of the season, as his metrics are well below his actual numbers. This season, Cronenworth possesses a .304 xwOBA, .222 xBA and .353 xSLG.
Adolis Garcia Under 0.5 Runs + RBIs
We have the second matchup of this three-game AL West series, as the Oakland Athletics host the Texas Rangers. Oakland won the first matchup, and I expect it to win the second, as right-hander James Kaprielian is slated to take the mound for Oakland.
We’re going to get generous numbers in this matchup due to Kaprielian’s poor surface-level numbers, as he’s 1-5 through 14 starts this season with a 5.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. That being said, his metrics aren’t as poor, as he possesses a .342 xwOBA, .253 xBA and .435 xSLG.
We’ve seen a slight positive regression start to hit Kaprielian lately. Over his last five starts, Kaprielian is 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
The first batter we’re fading in this matchup is Adolis Garcia, who has now gone under this total in eight of his last 12 games (75%). Through 21 career plate appearances against Kaprielian, Garcia possesses a mere .250 BA and .367 wOBA.
Kole Calhoun Under 0.5 Total Bases
The other Texas hitter we’re fading in this matchup is Kole Calhoun. While it’s an extremely small sample size, Calhoun is 0-for-2 in his career against Kaprielian.
It’s been a tough season for Calhoun, as he possesses a mere .221 BA, .390 SLG and .668 OPS. He has particularly struggled recently, as he’s failed to record a hit in six of his last seven games (86%).
When facing right-handers this season, Calhoun’s numbers take about a 10% dip compared to facing lefties.
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