Fourth of July MLB Sharp Report: Heavy Action on Giants-Rockies
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) celebrates with left fielder Gerardo Parra (8)
The Fourth of July holiday is primarily known for cookouts, adult beverages and fireworks, but it’s also a fun gambling holiday as well. Led by the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest and a full slate of MLB games, recreational bettors looking for a side of action to go with their Budweiser have everything they need for a true holiday sweat.
Interestingly, Joey Chesnut, the overwhelming favorite, won today’s hot dog eating contest, meaning public bettors who got down on the event likely won their wagers and have some extra bankroll to let loose on the evening’s MLB games.
However, sharp bettors are well aware of today’s influx of holiday recreational money and will obviously take advantage, especially if misinformed alcohol-inspired public action loads up on one side of the same game.
Looking at the rest of the day’s games, professional bettors are steadily buying back a contrarian opportunity in tonight’s San Francisco Giants-Colorado Rockies (8:10 p.m. ET) matchup.
A flood of recreational money hitting the market and a game at Coors Field can mean only one thing … an automatic over. With 56% of tickets on the over — and even more at square sportsbooks like GTBets (67%) and Sportsbook.ag (69%) — public bettors are leaning toward a high-scoring affair. However, Bookmaker.eu, a very sharp sportsbook, is seeing 57% of wagers playing the under.
In fact, The Action Network’s proprietary public money data reveals that 65% of actual dollars wagered have come in on the under. In addition, Sports Insights’ Bet Signals (which report sharp action in real-time across the sports betting market) have triggered two Steam Moves on the under, including one at Pinnacle, a market-setting book that accepts high-limit action from professional bettors.
Sportsbooks across the market have reacted by dropping the total to a consensus of 10.5, with a handful of 11’s still available at a couple of shops.
When it comes to Wednesday’s Giants-Rockies game, public bettors are expecting offensive fireworks, but wiseguys are happily taking the other side of this total.