The Seattle Mariners host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 10, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSMW.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cardinals vs Mariners Prediction
- Cardinals vs Mariners picks: First Five Innings Under 4.5
My Cardinals vs Mariners best bet is on Total Runs in the First Five Innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Mariners Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
Cardinals vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael McGreevy (STL) | Stat | RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L | 4-6 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 4.68 / 4.92 | ERA /xERA | 3.61 / 2.83 |
| 4.01 / 4.28 | FIP / xFIP | 3.13 / 2.69 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.02 |
| 10.1 | K-BB% | 27.9% |
| 44.9% | GB% | 41.4% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 111 | Location+ | 111 |
Kenny Ducey’s Cardinals vs Mariners Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
Michael McGreevy is finally free of the shuttle between St. Louis and Triple-A Memphis, and despite some shaky expected numbers, he's managed to settle into a rotation spot with a 3.50 ERA in 36 innings last month.
While the .298 Expected Batting Average and .476 Expected Slugging aren't great, he did lower those marks last month to a more reasonable spot while his walk rate continues to cruise well underneath the league average.
He's a heavy ground-ball pitcher, so he's unlikely to post a stellar xBA, but that doesn't mean he's necessarily going to give up a ton of hits. The Cardinals' infield defense ranks third in the game in Outs Above Average, and McGreevy's spacious home park has helped him limit the home runs for the most part, though his last two starts in St. Louis have seen him surrender four in all to the Pirates and Giants.
It's excusable to succumb to San Francisco, which is running the hottest offense in baseball right now, but McGreevy will have to prove himself here in a friendly pitcher's park against a team that has crushed ground-ballers.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
Seattle's offense has kicked back into gear over the last two weeks, ranking third in wRC+ and bringing its strikeout rate back down under 20% after a brief rough patch. While it still hasn't shown much interest in being patient, walking just 8.9% of the time to continue with a season-long trend, this team has slugged the lights out with a .214 Isolated Power to go along with a .265 batting average.
The Mariners, as noted above, have excelled against heavy ground-ballers like McGreevy, running the fifth-best OPS in baseball as opposed to the 11th-best the other way around. It's certainly imperative for this team to keep the ball out of the air at T-Mobile Park, anyway, and the right-hander should aid in that pursuit.
We focus on the offense here because Logan Gilbert is on the mound — and he will draw the worst offense in the league over the last 14 days, which is hitting just .210 with a brutal 26.6% strikeout rate.
The righty certainly didn't stun last month, running a 4.60 ERA through six starts, but it was just one start in a poor park for Gilbert against the Phillies, which inflated his numbers. He still managed an excellent 30.2% strikeout rate with neat expected numbers, and he carried that momentum into September, where he stymied the Braves over six one-run innings with seven punchouts last week.
Cardinals vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm not normally the type to lay runs with a team that plays in such a tough park to score, and even though the Mariners have covered in the first two games and step into an even-friendlier matchup, I think we're going to have to opt for the total.
Neither of these pitchers had excellent numbers last month. Still, McGreevy continues pitching to ground balls in front of one of the best infield defenses in baseball — and to make matters even sweeter, his outfield also ranks top-five. It will have plenty of space to run around and catch many fly balls, which this park is known for knocking down.
It's easy to see Gilbert seeing some further positive regression against the coldest offense in baseball, but it's hard to see McGreevy regressing with the way he's pitched to consistent contact with few walks in front of a defense this good. Seattle shouldn't be able to punish the youngster with a barrage of home runs in this environment, which is just about the only way we run into trouble with this number.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-130) | Play to Under 4 (-105)
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from Run Line bets.
Over/Under
I like Under 4.5 in the First Five Innings tonight.
Cardinals vs Mariners Betting Trends
