The Toronto Blue Jays host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 31, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are favored by -188 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +155 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Cardinals vs Blue Jays Pick: Under 8 (Play to Under 7.5 at -105 or Better)
My Cardinals vs Blue Jays best bet is on the run total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +111 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -188 |
- Cardinals vs Blue Jays moneyline: Cardinals +155, Blue Jays -188
- Cardinals vs Blue Jays over/under: 7.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Cardinals vs Blue Jays spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+111 ), Cardinals +1.5 (-135)
Cardinals vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
| RHP Kyle Leahy (STL) | Stat | RHP Dylan Cease (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 7-5 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.1 |
| 3.55/5.18 | ERA / xERA | 2.46/2.79 |
| 4.06/3.99 | FIP / xFIP | 2.31/2.65 |
| 12.5% | K-BB% | 26.0% |
| 44.4% | GB% | 43.9% |
| .307 | BABIP | .293 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 106 | Location+ | 99 |
Cardinals vs Blue Jays Pick, Betting Analysis
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
I bet the Under 8 here at -115, and while it has moved down to 7.5 in the market, I still project this total around 7.2 runs. We may get the roof open in Toronto tonight—which would boost the run-scoring environment on a beautiful night—but I still see enough edge to back a low-scoring game.
Kyle Leahy is a very interesting starting option. I don't think he's particularly good overall, but the separation between his predictive metrics and hard-hit profile is all over the place. He carries a 5.20 expected ERA and a 50% hard-hit rate, yet he posts a 3.99 xFIP and a 4.23 SIERA. He boasts very good command, rarely allows walks, and puts up a solid 106 Location+ rating. He is one of the more efficient strike-throwers on today’s slate.
Crucially, this Blue Jays offense isn't built to punish his high contact rates with raw power. Toronto fouls a lot of pitches off and hits for contact rather than power. Case in point: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. somehow still does not have a home run at home this season. They are simply not a major threat to elevate and clear the fences against a contact-oriented pitcher.
On the other side of the matchup, Dylan Cease has been a bona fide AL Cy Young candidate. Cease is phenomenal, and unlike other pitchers being tossed around in trade rumors ahead of the deadline, he signed a fresh contract and is locked in as an anchor for his rotation. I fully expect him to dominate and keep this game under the total tonight.
Pick: Under 8 (Play to Under 7.5 at -105 or Better)
