Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Tony Sartori has that job for Monday, September 21.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Blue Jays Moneyline (+100 at FanDuel| Play to -105)
- Nationals Under 3.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings | Play to -115)
- Twins/Giants Over 8 (-118 at DraftKings | Play to -125)
Blue Jays vs Orioles Picks
The Toronto Blue Jays hand the ball to right-hander Trey Yesavage, who has been fantastic in his first full campaign. Through 18 starts, the former first-round draft pick boasts a 3.65 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Yesavage owns a 3.38 xERA and a .200 xBA.
The right-hander also ranks in the top quarter of the league in whiff rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, right-hander Shane Baz gets the ball for the Baltimore Orioles. His 2026 season has gone far differently, as Baz is 6-15 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 30 starts.
He also trails Yesavage in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
While Baltimore is the stronger hitting team, the gap is not nearly as wide as the one on the mound. This season, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+100 at FanDuel | Play to -105)
Nationals vs Tigers Picks
While the Washington Nationals possess a tremendous offense, they are running into right-hander River Ryan. The No. 5-ranked prospect in the Detroit Tigers' organization, Ryan was a force in his debut campaign before injuries sidelined him.
Through his first four starts, Ryan was 1-0 with a 1.33 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. His underlying metrics were equally impressive.
If he had qualified, Ryan would have finished the year in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He threw nearly 10 innings in spring training this year, allowing just two earned runs while striking out 12 over that stretch.
Pick: Nationals Under 3.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings | Play to -115)
Twins vs Giants Picks
Right-hander Zebby Matthews takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins and should serve as a good fade candidate. He's struggled mightily across his first three seasons in MLB, posting a 15-20 record with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
Matthews' underlying metrics suggest that brighter days are unlikely. Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the 31st percentile in xERA, 37th percentile in xBA, sixth percentile in average exit velocity and sixth percentile in barrel rate.
The good news for Matthews is that he should receive plenty of run support. This season, Minnesota ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
The Twins' success at the plate is likely to continue against right-hander Blade Tidwell, who gets the ball for the San Francisco Giants. Through 20 appearances across his first two seasons, Tidwell is 2-3 with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.
This year, Tidwell ranks in the 30th percentile in xERA, 45th percentile in xBA, seventh percentile in barrel rate and 47th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Pick: Over 8 (-118 at DraftKings | Play to -125)
