Sunday MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Our 2 Favorite Wagers, Including Tigers vs. Royals & Pirates vs. Giants (July 25)
Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker.
- Tigers vs. Royals. Pirates vs. Giants.
- Those are the games our baseball analysts have targeted for Sunday's MLB best bets.
- Check out their favorite picks below and see where they've found betting value.
We have another loaded lineup of Major League Baseball games on deck, featuring 15 matchups on the stacked Sunday schedule.
Our betting analysts have targeted two meetings on the docket, with their betting angles coming from the Tigers vs. Royals and Pirates vs. Giants showdowns.
Let’s take a look at where they’ve found value in their top selections.
MLB Odds & Picks
Tigers vs. Royals
Tanner McGrath: I really like Tarik Skubal’s chances in this spot. In fact, I’ve already bet his over 4.5 strikeout prop.
The southpaw has had an above-average season following a disastrous start, posting a 3.59 ERA and a 3.55 xFIP in 13 starts since May 1. Plus, he’s averaging close to 5 2/3 innings per outing.
After striking out a ridiculous 17.29 batters per nine innings in 2019 Double-A ball, that ability is starting to translate to the big leagues. He’s punching out 11.27 batters per nine innings since April finally concluded.
Skubal throws a live fastball (95+ mph) ,while mixing in an effective slider. Both should work fine, as the Royals have posted a combined -18.2 weighted fastball and slider runs created this season. That’s a stat ranking among the bottom 10 teams in baseball.
Plus, Kansas City has managed just a 92 wRC+ against southpaws this season, which gives Skubal a good chance to overpower that lineup.
While Daniel Lynch is the Royals No. 2 overall prospect, he hasn’t quite figured out how to pitch in the big leagues yet, so it should prove tough to knock down the quite competent Tigers.
All-in-all, I think Detroit would prove profitable in the long run in this contest. However, I’m avoiding the chaotic bullpens and playing the Tigers on the first five innings moneyline at -120 or better.
Pirates vs. Giants
Sean Zerillo: Alex Wood has been tremendous this season (3.78 xERA; 3.69 xFIP; and, 3.72 SIERA) for the Giants. Still, JT Brubaker has almost been equally effective for the Pirates (4.35 xERA, 3.90 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA). So, while my model gives San Francisco a slight starting-pitching edge, it’s not particularly drastic (3.8 to 4.17 Model Weighted ERA) as you can see.
The Pirates also have the bullpen arms to make any game competitive in the late innings, and while I give the Giants a slight advantage there as well (3.71 to 3.97 Model Weighted ERA), the gap isn’t too wide either.
Offensively, Pittsburgh ranks dead last in wRC+ (83) against left-handed pitching. In contrast, San Francisco is sixth against righties (107) — a 24% gap — but the club is also dealing with several injuries at the present moment and I only have the offensive talent gap at 0.23 runs in favor of the hosts.
Moreover, while the Giants have rated as a far better defensive club on the season (30 Defensive Runs Saved — 8th vs. 2 DRS — 19th, for Pittsburgh), I would make the gap much closer given the present situatiions owertaining to their respective lineups.
Putting all of that together, I project the Giants as 45.5% underdogs for the first five innings (F5) and 44.8% underdogs for the whole game. I would bet either moneyline down to about +135, and I’m splitting my F5 wager with some plus money spread (+0.5 runs) as well.