MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 3 Strikeout Totals to Play (Sunday, April 11)
Will Newton/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Smyly of the Braves.
- On a busy sports Sunday, why not target the over on three strikeout totals?
- Michael Ianniello breaks down which pitchers he likes in game with the Braves, Red Sox & more.
I hope you listened to my article yesterday and took the Jose Quintana over because what a win that was. Quintana somehow hit his over 3.5 strikeouts, with 4 K’s despite allowing seven runs and getting pulled after recording just five outs. He did his job for bettors and got out of there.
I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Jorge López over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles||Boston -139|
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
Jorge López will make his second start of the season after striking out five New York Yankees through 4 2/3 innings and allowing four runs on three hits and three walks. He will now face a Red Sox lineup that has the sixth-best strikeout percentage in the league, with 21.4%.
López has not traditionally been a swing-and-miss type of pitcher, throwing to just a 7.34 K/9 rate over his career, but I still feel this number is a tad too low.
López sometimes struggles with walks but if he can get a few calls with his sinker and is able to pitch into the fifth inning, he should be able to clear this number.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Trevor Williams over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)
|Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates||Chicago -143|
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
After spending the first five seasons of his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Trevor Williams will now make his second start for the Cubs. Williams looked solid in his first outing for Chicago, going six innings and allowing two runs on two hits, fanning six batters on his way to the win against Milwaukee.
While I think the extra motivation against his former club will help Williams here, he might not need it against a Pirates lineup that averages 11.15 K/9. Colin Moran and Bryan Reynolds are probably the Pirates two best hitters (with Ke’Bryan Hayes out), and they both have K% over 30% this year.
I expect Williams to last at least six innings against a weak Buccos lineup, which should be enough to get him over the 4.5 strikeouts. He has pitched in the beautiful PNC Park plenty of times before, and I expect him to be comfortable and have a little extra juice on his pitches today against his former team.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Drew Smyly over 6.5 Strikeouts
|Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves||Atlanta -166|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Look, today is Sunday at the Masters, it’s WrestleMania, we have baseball, hockey and NASCAR on, and everybody is feeling good. So I am going with three overs today.
Drew Smyly only really throws three pitches but he throws them well. Using just a fastball, cutter and curveball, Smyly had a 14.35 K/9 rate in five starts for the San Francisco Giants last season. In his first start of the season against the Nationals, he struck out eight batters over six innings and allowed just two runs on four hits.
While Philadelphia has a very dangerous lineup, they do have a 28.5 strikeout percentage, 26th in the league. Atlanta is a -166 favorite in what could be a high-scoring game with a declining Matt Moore on the bump for the Phillies. If Atlanta can give Smyly enough runs early to extend his leash and get him through six innings, I expect him to go over 6.5 strikeouts.