Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Concern With Teheran’s Decrease in Velocity?

Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Concern With Teheran’s Decrease in Velocity? article feature image

Orlando Ramirez, USA Today Sports

Nice dueling last night from MadBum and Alex Wood, as we get the Giants-Dodgers Under 7.5 to cash. I never want to have a losing weekend, so let’s see if I can deliver on this meaningful Sunday play.

2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 46-29-2, +13.9 units
Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Dodgers Under 7.5, Bumgarner vs. Wood (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | O/U: 8.5
1:35 p.m. ET
Matt Strahm (1-2, 2.55 ERA) vs. Julio Teheran (4-4, 4.31 ERA)

The over/under line for this matchup didn’t come out until pretty late in the morning, didn’t there’s a reason for that: the oddsmakers know they could be vulnerable to a total involving this really, really good San Diego bullpen.

With Matt Strahm installed as the “starter” in this strategy, the under is 3-0, while Strahm has allowed only one run in his 7.1 total innings pitching in this spot. He worked a season-high three perfect innings his last time out in my winning under on Tuesday, so it’s possible he’s allowed to go even longer now.

I’ll let manager Andy Green, who deploys this bullpen game strategy very wisely, explain the method: “It’s got to be tough as a hitter. First, you have a lefty slinger throwing 95-96 (mph). Next at-bat, you’ve got a drop-down righty coming from underneath. It’s just two radically different looks, and it plays well off each other and keeps guys uncomfortable. By the time you’re up a third time, you’re facing a back-end reliever.”

But then we have the other hurler in this series finale, Julio Teheran, to worry about, as he gets set to return for his first start since June 4. Oh, and that start was a disappointing showing versus these same Padres, who tagged the veteran right-hander for four runs on four hits, including three homers, in just four innings. But in his defense, he did end up on the disabled list after exiting early.

Teheran has been dealing with a drop in velocity this season, registering an average fastball speed of only 89.2 mph. Last year, that number sat at more than two miles (91.4) higher. The advantage of leaning on Teheran in this spot, though, is that he had 12 days of rest, which should pump some life back into that fastball.

The 27-year-old is better than his current lackluster stats and is bound to improve on that when at full health, which he appears to be in. Combine that along with a real stingy San Diego bullpen and your outcome should settle in under the total.

Play: UNDER 8.5 (-110)