The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays will begin an exciting 2025 ALCS rematch on July 3, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are favored by -125 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Mariners are +105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Mariners Pick: Blue Jays F5+0.5/to Win Game +105 (Bet365, Play to -105)
My Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet is Blue Jays F5+0.5/to Win Game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7 -120o / 100u | -125 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 7 -120o / 100u | +105 |
- Blue Jays vs Mariners moneyline: Blue Jays -125, Mariners +105
- Blue Jays vs Mariners over/under: 7 (-12o / -100u)
- Blue Jays vs Mariners spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+140), Mariners +1.5 (-165)
Blue Jays vs Mariners Kalshi MLB Odds
Blue Jays vs Mariners Probable Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (TOR) | Stat | RHP Luis Castillo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | W-L | 3-6 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.02/3.00 | ERA / xERA | 4.93/4.59 |
| 2.37/2.62 | FIP / xFIP | 3.95/4.37 |
| 25.2% | K-BB% | 13.9% |
| 44.6% | GB% | 35.9% |
| .335 | BABIP | .305 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 97 | Location+ | 110 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners MLB Betting Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
The Blue Jays earned a rare blowout win over the Mets on Canada Day, their first win by three or more runs since June 16th. As a result, they did not have to use any of their top relievers in that matchup, which, coupled with an off day, leaves Toronto's overworked bullpen in great shape heading into this matchup.
Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers have not worked over the last three days and should be prepared to handle the eighth and ninth innings in this matchup if needed. Varland holds an absurd 0.98 ERA to go alongside a 1.96 xERA this season, while Rogers has worked to a 1.82 ERA with a 2.80 xERA.
Adam Macko, Tommy Nance and Mason Fluharty are also well-rested and provide strong options for the sixth and seventh innings if needed.
Dylan Cease has not been overly efficient throughout his last four starts since coming off the IL, but he has still been effective in pitching to a 2.95 ERA and racking up 15.19 strikeouts per nine. In those outings, he also holds an xERA of 2.48 and an xFIP of 2.63.
Throughout his last 300 pitches, Cease has not allowed a barrel, and he's allowed an xBA of .185 across his last nine outings. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 107 this season, and though an inability to pitch overly deep into ballgames remains a concern relative to other elite starters, he's still been a very effective pickup for Toronto.
Toronto's lineup has struggled mightily versus left-handed pitching recently, but it has hit to a wRC+ of 107 versus righties since June 1st.
The Blue Jays' worst year-over-year regression offensively has come versus breaking stuff, but Castillo features a fastball-heavy arsenal and may struggle to expose what has become Toronto's greatest weakness. George Springer will be unavailable due to paternal leave, but it does not leave a notable hole given his form this season and Toronto's slew of comparably middling options to platoon versus righties.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
The Mariners have posted a 13-14 record over the last 30 days, yet have still achieved that mediocre mark mainly due to solid pitching. Their staff has worked to an ERA of 3.65 in that span, while the offense has really struggled.
Over the last 30 days, the Mariners rank 26th with a wRC+ of 87, hold a BB/K ratio of 0.35, and rank 21st in hard-hit rate. They have hit just .230 versus right-handed pitching in that span, a wRC+ of 89, and have struck out 23.2%.
Castillo has managed better results where it counts of late, but his underlying profile remains comparably unconvincing to what it has been for the rest of the season. Throughout his last 48 and 1/3 IP, Castillo has worked a 4.10 ERA and 4.28 xFIP, while he holds a 4.93 ERA and 4.59 xERA this season.
Castillo holds a Stuff+ rating of 98, which is tied (with 2025) for the worst mark of his excellent career. He holds a career-low strikeout-minus-walk rate of 13.9% and ranks in the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 22nd percentile in barrel rate this season.
He's not yet found much success at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Ballpark either, as he holds an ERA of 5.68 and a WHIP of 1.42 across 31 and 2/3 innings of work. While it's unlikely that Castillo will actually finish the year with worse splits at home, it is notable that even in a ballpark that can hold some hard contact, he has not been able to get by.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
The Blue Jays' offense has been highly concerning this season, but over a fairly large sample, the lineup has started to deliver better-than-average results against righties. It's a point that has been partially obscured by struggles in the starting rotation and a couple of blown games in matchups where top high-leverage options were unavailable.
Toronto's offense has to be viewed as at worst on par with the Mariners versus righties right now, which makes me believe they deserve to be a larger favorite in a matchup where Cease offers a notable edge over Castillo, while its top relievers are ready to work.
Backing Toronto to win the game at -125 is a solid option, but Bet365's price of +105 for the Blue Jays to at least push the first five innings before winning the game is my favorite play from this matchup.
Pick: Blue Jays F5+0.5/to Win Game +105 (Bet365, Play to -105)
