The Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays on October 15, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 08:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Find my MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Mariners picks: Mariners moneyline (-134 | Play to -140)
My Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet is Mariners moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7 100o / -120u | +115 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7 100o / -120u | -135 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Bieber (TOR) | Stat | RHP George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 10-8 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 3.57 / 4.57 | ERA /xERA | 4.21 / 3.85 |
| 4.47 / 3.35 | FIP / xFIP | 3.37 / 3.25 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 18.9% | K-BB% | 20.6% |
| 49.1% | GB% | 44.4% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 106 | Location+ | 113 |
Tony Sartori’s Blue Jays vs Mariners Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Desperate times call for desperate measures
Trailing 2-0 in the series, Toronto desperately turns to right-hander Shane Bieber. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, this likely means they’re headed toward a near-insurmountable 3-0 deficit in the ALCS.
Bieber started Game 3 of the ALDS against the New York Yankees and was shelled, surrendering three runs on five hits in under three innings of work. That performance was predictable, given Bieber’s poor underlying metrics from the regular season.
The right-hander made only seven starts but posted a 4.57 xERA and .270 xBA. If he officially qualified, he also would’ve ranked near the bottom of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
To make matters worse, if Bieber is chased early again, he’ll be followed by a vulnerable bullpen. This season, Toronto’s relief staff finished in the bottom half of the league in ERA, xERA and WAR.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: New Pitcher, the same plan
Relief pitching is just one of the many advantages Seattle boasts in this contest. The Mariners may not possess the best bullpen in baseball, but they outranked the Jays in each of those key categories.
Not only does Seattle hold the bullpen advantage, but it’s also likely to lead by the time the game reaches that point. Right-hander George Kirby takes the mound for the Mariners, and he was excellent in the ALDS.
Through two starts, Kirby posted a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He’s not only been better than Bieber this postseason, but his regular-season analytics were also superior.
Kirby outranked Bieber in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
The clear pitching advantage in this matchup goes to Seattle, which holds both the starting and relief pitching edge. The Mariners also benefit from home-field advantage in Game 3, an important factor at this point in the playoffs.
Seattle went 53-31 at home across the regular season and postseason combined. Meanwhile, Toronto posted a 41-42 road record over that same span.
Pick: Mariners moneyline (-134 | Play to -140)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting the Mariners moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like the Mariners to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the under, but don't trust Bieber.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Betting Trends
