For my Tuesday MLB playoff player props, I'll be looking into a pair of pitchers in Gavin Williams and Max Fried.
Let's dive into my MLB Playoff player prop picks for the games on Tuesday, September 30.
MLB Playoff Player Props for September 30, 2025
Tigers vs Guardians Player Props: Great Matchup for Williams
The Guardians won the season series 8-5 over the Tigers this year, although it may seem like these teams have played 30 times this season, given the six matchups over the last two weeks.
Despite the extended looks at each other's pitching staffs, the games generally have been low scoring. One reason for that is Gavin Williams, who has emerged as the Guardians' ace this season.
In three starts against the Tigers this season, Williams has a 1.06 ERA, .136 opposing batting average, and 29 strikeouts. He has soared over this line in all three outings with eight, nine, and 12 strikeouts.
The Tigers present a great matchup as they ranked fourth in strikeout rate in the regular season. Williams has taken advantage with 50 strikeouts in 138 plate appearances (36%) against the hitters on the Tigers' playoff roster.
In the playoffs, games can turn into a battle of bullpens. However, I am expecting Williams to at least get five innings today. Since the beginning of May, he has cleared this line in 13 of his last 19 starts when going five innings.
With Tarik Skubal on the other side, Williams may have to match pitch for pitch in an expected pitcher's duel.
Red Sox vs Yankees Player Props: Fried's Playoffs Struggles
When the Yankees signed Max Fried last winter, he was expected to be the No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole. However, more was expected when Cole was lost for the season and Fried delivered. He had a 2.86 ERA in 195 and 1/3 innings while leading the MLB with 19 wins and posting a 4.5 WAR.
However, Fried has a career 3.03 ERA in the regular season, so his 2025 campaign was not a major surprise. It is the postseason where he has struggled.
In 20 appearances (12 starts), Fried has a 5.10 ERA in the playoffs. He has allowed three earned runs or more in three straight and five of his last six postseason starts. That includes five earned runs against the Padres in his final outing with the Braves.
Fried has had a great deal of success against Boston this season with a 1.96 ERA in three starts. However, he has still allowed at least two earned runs in two of those outings.
Boston's team total is set at 1.5 for the first five innings. Fried has pitched into the sixth in all starts against Boston this season and in his last seven starts overall.
If Boston gets two in the first few innings, they will likely be against Fried.
