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Twins vs Guardians Odds, Picks: How to Bet AL Central Matinee (Monday, September 19)

Twins vs Guardians Odds, Picks: How to Bet AL Central Matinee (Monday, September 19) article feature image
Credit:

David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Sonny Gray

  • The Twins and Guardians meet this afternoon in Cleveland in a key, AL Central affair.
  • Minnesota is all but out of the postseason race, but the Guardians need a win ahead of this week's big series with the White Sox.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.

Twins vs. Guardians Odds

Twins Odds -110
Guardians Odds -110
Over/Under 7
Time 1:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

A crucial week for the Cleveland Guardians begins Monday afternoon at Progressive Field in a matchup pitting Sonny Gray and a dinged up Minnesota Twins lineup against Cal Quantrill.

Cleveland enters this contest with a 3.5 game lead over the White Sox in the AL Central, who they will meet in a pivotal three-game set after starting Tuesday, which could decide the division.

Will Gray’s recent dominance continue Monday against the red-hot Guardians?

Twins’ Season About Over

The Twins have had a once positive season derailed by a ton of injuries, and will all but likely come up a little shy of the playoffs, barring a spectacular push down the stretch.

The first step will likely need to be a dominant outing Monday from Gray, and if they have got to start somewhere, that may be the place.

Gray has been spectacular since the All-Star break, pitching to an ERA of 1.81 throughout 54 innings with a WHIP of just 1.02.

Gray has thrown to a K/9 rate of greater than 9.00 in eight of his 10 contests since the break, and it’s not surprising to see the strikeout rate ticking closer to elite levels considering his excellent spin rates, which have helped to generate strikeouts at an higher mark in each of the last three campaigns.

A strong outing Monday from Gray could be crucial, as Minnesota’s shorthanded lineup surely isn’t notably potent, hitting to a wRC+ of 92 over the last 14 days, with a woba of .292.

Guardians Gearing Up For Postseason

Cleveland’s 11-3 tear has come with considerably better results at the plate than we have seen throughout much of this 2022 campaign, but it’s certainly worth noting it has faced a well below average slate of starters altogether during that period.

The Guardians still hold one of the worst xSLG rates in baseball at .361.

It’s clear Cleveland does a lot of the little things well and holds strong fundamentals as a team, which is a positive heading into the postseason, but to me it still seems likely we are looking at a high point with the names on board for this offense.

The Guardians have struggled in particular against the curveball and sinker this season, which could also be favorable notes for Gray entering Monday’s matchup.

Gray has a relatively large history with the Guardians roster, and holds an xwOBA of .274 throughout 105 plate appearances.

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Twins-Guardians Pick

The Guardians are favored to win this contest due in part to their overall record and stronger recent play at the plate, but I still feel the Twins could be even a slight favorite on the game line considering the starting pitching matchup.

Gray offers a considerable edge over Quantrill, and I do not believe the gap in lineups offensively is enough to warrant a pick’em price for the first five innings of this contest considering that fact.

I also believe that Cleveland’s offense may be overachieving to an extent of late, and that moving forward we may look back on this last tear as somewhat of a high-water mark for the Guardians’ offensively this season.

Pick: Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings -115 (Play to -115)

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