Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet This Parlay in Series Finale (April 18)

Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet This Parlay in Series Finale (April 18) article feature image

Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Rich Hill (Red Sox)

  • The Red Sox host the Twins on Patriots' Day in the series finale.
  • Rich Hill will take the bump for the Sox while the Twins will send Dylan Bundy to the hill.
  • Here's how Nick Martin is betting this MLB matchup.

Twins vs. Red Sox Odds

Twins Odds+120
Red Sox Odds-145
Over/Under8.5 (-110/-110)
Time11:10 a.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Red Sox will host the Twins on Monday for the finale of a four-game set on Patriots' Day.

The Red Sox will send fan favorite Rich Hill to the mound. The 42-year-old lefty began his outing effectively last Tuesday against Detroit, but fell apart in the fifth and was unable to get out of the inning.

Minnesota will start Dylan Bundy, hoping that the big righty can build on a strong opening start to his campaign last time out vs. Seattle.

Is Bundy potentially flying under the radar after some horrible results last season, or will we see a Red Sox lineup that has fared well against him post a big number on Monday?

How Does Bundy Impact This Game?

For the Minnesota Twins to post a winning record this season, two key factors will play a part: AL MVP pick Byron Buxton will have to stay healthy and the starters at the backend of the rotation will have to be solid.

Well, the Twins have already suffered some tough luck on the Buxton front, as the star center-fielder was injured in the first game of this series and remains day-to-day.

Bundy was tremendous in his first start against Seattle, though, and would offer a massive boost to the Twins should he put forth some competent innings every five days. Bundy allowed just one hit through five innings and held a QOPA of 4.65 on his 67 pitches vs. Seattle.

Five innings shouldn't warrant an entirely changed mindset towards a pitcher however, and Bundy struggled mightily last season. Beyond that, he doesn't match up well with this Boston team, which has hit him hard historically.

Bundy had a 4.82 xERA through 90.2 innings pitched last season, and batters owned a 10.3% barrel rate and .335 xwOBA. Bundy was prone to allowing some big innings, and while he was able to avoid some jams the first time out this year, he has yet to prove that flaw is gone.

Rafael Devers has a .550 SLG% against Bundy in 24 plate appearances, Xander Bogaerts has slugged .694 in 42 at-bats and even Jackie Bradley Jr. has slugged .433 vs. him.

Should Bundy manage another strong start in a tougher spot here, it would be quite a notable turnaround. That is especially the case since the Sox have historically strong results off of him.

Minnesota could find some run support against Hill if Bundy does falter. The Twins' expected roster vs. LHP does feature six batters with a wRC+ past 100 last season (seven with Buxton), and they figure to be improved in this regard.

Red Sox to Find Offensive Success Soon

It's somewhat hard to quantify what to expect from Hill this season, but I think something along the lines of his last outing vs. the Tigers could be near the average results — even if the final stat line was quite harsh compared to the overall performance.

Hill has the ability to keep hitters off his fastball with some excellent breaking stuff, is clever in his ability to throw batters' timing off and find creative outs, and features solid walk rates.

However, when batters can see his breaking stuff, the lower-average fastball velocity of 88 will be a problem. I think seeing Hill manage significantly better numbers than last season would be surprising.

Hill pitched to a respectable 4.45 xERA at the age of 41 last year.

The Sox haven't entirely clicked into high gear offensively yet, but this is one of the more proven lineups in baseball. I think we know they will find lots of success at the plate moving forward.

Patriots' Day games are a big deal in Boston, and I'm counting on the stars getting in the starting lineup for this one.

The everyday lineup vs. righties remains similar this year, and last season saw the Sox post a 120 wRC+ at Fenway with a .359 wOBA in at-bats vs. right-handed pitching.

Twins-Red Sox Pick

Boston's regular order batted effectively vs. right-handed starters last season,  and a number of its stars have had Bundy's number historically.

This looks like a good spot for the heart of the Red Sox's order to build on their recent big showing. I think we will see them get to Bundy for three-plus earned runs and get into the Twins' bullpen.

We can expect Minnesota will manage some offense against Hill, as well.

I believe that the majority of the Red Sox's wins will come in high-scoring games, which makes me see value backing a Red Sox win plus the over nine at +215.

Pick: Boston Red Sox + Over 9 Parlay +215 (Play to +200)

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