Twins vs. White Sox MLB Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Minnesota’s Team Total (Thursday, July 1)

Twins vs. White Sox Odds

With about half of the season over, the AL Central battle lines have been clearly drawn.

The Chicago White Sox are in first place with a 47-32 record, while the Minnesota Twins are close to last place with a 33-45 record. This week, the White Sox are hosting the Twins and have won the first two games.

Unsurprisingly, Chicago is favored again for Thursday's showdown. The Twins have a plausible path to victory, relying on one of their few solid starting pitchers in José Berríos. Opposing Berríos will be Carlos Rodón, who is also having a good season.

The question for this matinee is if having Berríos on the mound is enough for Minnesota to win as a slim underdog?

Minnesota Twins

In the previous two years when the Twins won the AL Central, their identity as a team was clear. They had a strong lineup, but a weak starting rotation. As a starting pitcher, Berríos has been an exception to this rule. Since 2017, he's been the most consistent starter, as his ERA has stayed between 3.41 and 4.00 on the mound.

This season, Berríos has a 7-2 record with a 3.41 ERA, and a 3.46 xFIP. If the Twins had more starting pitchers like Berríos, they would likely have a winning record this season.

One aspect of Berríos’ game that's important is his usage, as he's averaging around six innings per start. Minnesota’s bullpen has not done well, as it has a 4.67 FIP that's the fourth-worst number in the league. For the Twins to have a chance against the White Sox, Berrios needs to give them six quality innings.

Backing up Berríos is a Twins lineup that's one of the league’s best. Currently, Minnesota is averaging 4.65 runs per game, which is more than the average MLB team that scores 4.41 runs per game. Most important for Minnesota is how it handles a strong pitcher in Rodón.

Currently, the Twins have a 107 wRC+ against lefties, which is the sixth best in baseball. If Minnesota played only against left-handed pitchers, they would average 4.72 runs per game.

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Chicago White Sox

Opposing the Twins' lineup is Rodón. This has been a breakout season for him, as he has a 6-3 record with a 2.06 ERA, and 12.93 strikeouts per nine innings.

While Rodón has a low ERA, he has an xFIP of 3.06 that's a full run higher than his earned run average. Additionally, before this season, Rodón was nowhere near as good and he could easily regress. Going into the campaign, Rodón was expected to have around a 3.75 ERA. Against a strong Minnesota lineup, Rodón could have a tough time in this contest.

Backing up Rodón is a Chicago lineup that has done well this season. Currently, it's averaging 4.91 runs per game, which is the sixth best in baseball and the best in the AL Central. With José Abreu, Yasmani Grandal and Adam Engel all having good seasons, the White Sox have a strong offensive core.

Twins-White Sox Pick

This is a tough game to bet on. Chicago should be favored most of the time against Minnesota based on how both teams are playing. Even with Berríos on the mound for the Twins, my model only gives them a slight moneyline edge. Additionally, the total has been efficiently set.

However, after simulating this game 10,000 times in my model, Minnesota scores more than 3.5 runs in 56.7 percent of my simulations. With a team total set at only 3.5 runs, the over is worth a look. The Twins have a strong lineup that does well against lefties like Rodón.

I would bet on over 3.5 Twins runs at -118 and would bet it up to -125 odds.

Pick: Minnesota Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-118)